Starbucks recently announced its closure of 250 store locations across North America by the end of 2026. Simultaneously, the company also quietly cut its global store-opening target for the year, from 600–650 down to 440, all while citing its fourth straight quarter of growth .

In simple terms, Starbucks isn’t struggling to get customers in the door. It is, however, unwinding a bet it made on where those customers would show up, how many leases it would require, and how much staff it would take to serve them. That’s a mistake every small business owner usually makes their own version of (often with far less room for error than that of a company of Starbucks’ size).

This is not to say that scaling a business is to be avoided at all costs. Rather, if you are a small business owner contemplating your path to scaling, Starbucks’ retreat is worth paying attention to.

What Does Scaling Actually Mean?

More locations, more leases, more staff. For most businesses regardless of industry, a bigger footprint has always been the signal for bigger success. The problem is, over 80% of small businesses in the US are operating as solo ventures without access to the same data that a company the size of Starbucks would have in its decision-making process. That gap is exactly why this case is useful. Every one of Starbucks’ 250 closing stores was, at some point, a calculated bet that customers would keep showing up there, and that the overhead costs associated made sense against forecasted revenue.

If a multi-billion dollar corporation like Starbucks can overcommit to its own growth, it’s worth asking whether your own business’ growth plan has actually earned its confidence, or just borrowed it from optimistic intentions.

So How Do You Know When You’re Actually Ready for Growth?

The decision to close locations across North America is anticipated to cost upwards of $300M in unfinished lease agreements, employee severance packages, and asset disposition, an expensive lesson that all business owners should take note of. Before you decide to expand your inventory, hire ahead of revenue, or take on any commitment you can’t easily walk back, it’s worth pressure-testing the decision the way one might have expected Starbucks to have pressure-tested its own expansion.

Here are a few questions to ask before deciding to commit to your next expansion:

  • What happens if demand drops? If the answer involves scrambling to afford your overhead, that’s often a signal that this decision is sized for best-case scenario projections, and not likely demand.
  • Do you have the runway to float yourself if it doesn’t work out? A lease, a new hire, or a bulk inventory order can often lock you in for 12 months or more. Your version of that bet likely won’t cost $300M to unwind, but the mechanics are the same: does your commitment outlast your ability to walk away?
  • Is this demand-driven or fear-driven? There’s a real difference between businesses expanding because their capacity has outgrown their ability to fulfill demand, and those growing out of fear that a competitor will beat them to it. Only the former is backed by actual evidence.

While Starbucks has the balance sheet, brand recognition, and four straight quarters of growth to survive this retreat, most small businesses don’t get that kind of cushion. The businesses that scale well aren’t always the ones that grow the fastest. They’re the ones that can make calculated decisions and ask hard questions before finding themselves locked into a lease, payroll commitment, or inventory order they actually can’t afford.