Russia has carried out its strategic air campaign against Ukraine with traditional ballistic and cruise missiles and increasing numbers of small, low-cost attack drones. Now the drones are changing, with fewer of the propeller-driven types and more fast jet-powered drones .

Why are Ukrainian defenders worried and how could jet drones change the strategic balance?

The Russian For Shahed Is “Geran”

In 2022 Russia started importing Ukrainian Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones. These were literally rebranded, and known in Russia as Geran-1 and Geran-2. The smaller Geran-1 has not featured much, but in 2023 Russia built a giant new facility in Alabuga , east of Moscow, to churn out Geran-2s under license

The Geran-2, nicknamed “moped” from the sound of its engine, is a triangular drone with a seven-foot wingspan, cruising at around 120 mph and with a range of around 1,200 miles. It is typically armed with a 110-pound high explosive/fragmentation/incendiary warhead and guided by jam-resistant satellite navigation.

Individually easy to shoot down, the great advantage of the Geran-2 is low cost and ease of production which means Russia can make them in vast numbers, going from tens to hundreds to thousands per month. In May they launched more than 8,000 long-range attack drones.

However, Ukraine has stepped up its interceptor game. In addition to small surface-to-air missiles, mobile fire teams armed with machine guns and automatic cannon have become increasingly effective. New FPV interceptors costing a few thousand dollars can take down a Shahed from several miles away. And helicopters and agricultural aircraft with machine-guns blast the slow Geran-2s out of the sky.

By June 2026, roughly 92% of the Gerans were brought down before they reached their targets. This trend has prompted a shift in the Russian approach.

Accelerating To Jet Speed

One way of making the Geran harder to bring down is to make it faster. In July 2025 Russia introduced the Geran-3, which replaced the piston engine with a Chinese Telefly JT80 turbojet, boosting its top speed to over 200 mph. These appeared in small numbers.

In 2026 the attack drones shifted up a gear with the Geran-4, which is a complete rebuild . In addition to a Telefly LX-WP-160 turbojet – as the numbers suggest, twice as powerful as the earlier jet engine – the body has been extensively reworked. The Geran-4 cruises at over 200 mph, almost twice as fast as the Geran-2, and has sprint speed of over 300 mph.

Previous Gerans have detachable wings so they can be packed away easily, simplifying storage and transport. The Geran-4 retains the same size and shape, but body and wings are now all one piece. The airframe has also been strengthened and reinforced.

The changes were needed because, even when flying in a straight line, higher speeds put greater forces on the structure. The forces increase with the square of the speed rather than in a linear fashion, so running into turbulence at 300 mph puts far more strain on the wings than at 100 mph. Similarly, if the drone makes a turn, the airframe has to be far stronger to withstand the forces.

In addition, the number of maintenance hatches on the outside, a conspicuous Geran feature, has been reduced. This cuts drag to help aerodynamics. Again, at low speeds the surface does not need to be perfectly smooth, but the faster the drone goes, the greater the effect of any irregularities. This is why prop-powered light aircraft can have various untidy projecting antennas and exposed wires while high-performance jets are sleek and streamlined.

These modifications cost. The best estimates are that the Geran-4 comes in at something over $100k or twice as much as the basic Geran-2.

Equally significantly, turbojet engines are much less fuel efficient, and the maximum range of the Geran-4 is estimated at perhaps 300 miles, or a quarter of the Geran-2

Paying twice as much for such short range looks questionable. But the speed which makes it harder to stop is the Geran-4’s ace.

The higher cruising speed gives defenders less time to get ready to meet an incoming raid. There is less chance for mobile fire units to move into place, and less chance to alert targets. The Russians claim that a Geran-4 hit a Ukrainian MiG-29 jet on the ground . Previously air bases had enough time to relocate aircraft when drones were incoming.

Mobile fire groups have much less chance of shooting down a drone at 300 mph than 120 mph. It is in their sights for less time, and the lead needed for a fast-moving target makes it more challenging. High-end, radar-guided systems like Gepard are effective, but soldiers with machine-guns and even Kalashnikovs previously seen shooting down Geran-2s have little chance against the Geran -4.

The jet drones are too fast for helicopters to catch, and they can outpace the small electric interceptor drones which typically have a top speed of less than 220 mph.

An important caveat is that the Geran-4 can only outrun an intercept when it accelerates to top speed. Interceptors can and do catch Geran-4s while they are cruising .

Some Gerans have detectors which pick up the emissions from interceptors, which gives the operator a chance to respond. However, interceptors with AI guidance may “go dark” after the operator locks on, giving no warning. As usual, it is a game of move and countermove.

The early signs suggest that the jets may be working. In July, Russia launched fewer Gerans, around 5,000 but a higher proportion got through according to Shahed Tracker , with the intercept rate down to 87%. (Other factors, like the use of Shaheds on short-range tactical targets, also contribute to the lower intercept rate, but the jets are having an effect).

Shooting down Geran-4s may use up air defence missiles which would otherwise be saved for cruise missiles and other, bigger threats.

However, the defence is stepping up. Ukrainian developers anticipated the challenge and have already developed jet-powered interceptors which can reach 400 mph and should easily be able to counter Geran-4. Again these cost much less than the drones they intercept and if these can be rolled out rapidly, the balance will tilt back.

Russian sources say they want 50% of Geran production to be jet-powered. And they have raised the bar even higher with a new Geran-5 , first seen in January. This is a complete redesign which drops the delta-wing for a traditional cruise missile layout. The Geran-5 weighs twice as much as the earlier drones, and has a powerful turbojet engine giving a reported 600-mile range and 300-400 mph cruising speed. This will be more costly and complex than the Geran-4 to produce and production will be correspondingly low.

Russia may have given up the attempt to saturate Ukrainian defenses with low-cost drones. Instead the new high-performance drones will merge with the cruise and ballistic missile campaign in putting pressure on missile defense. Success depends on scaling up before Ukraine can develop effective counters.

The strategic drone war is evolving rapidly. We can expect to see more significant changes in the next year, but what these will look like is anyone’s guess.