Socialist Francesca Hong was heavily favored to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday in betting odds and among politicos, but the few polls taken proved unreliable in a primary with several major last-minute developments that changed the dynamics in the race.

In a Marquette Law poll taken July 22-27, Hong led with 38% support, followed by Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with 16% and Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive, with 7%.

The poll was taken three days before Barnes dropped out of the race on July 30 and less than a week after Crowley re-entered the race on July 18 after dropping out for 10 days.

In an earlier Marquette poll taken July 8-16, when Crowley was out of the race, Hong led with 26% support, followed by Barnes with 15% and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out of the race on July 17, with 11%.

In both Marquette polls, a significant share of voters were undecided—45% in the initial poll and 34% in the later one, while the sample size was also relatively small (838 registered voters in the first poll with a margin of error of 4.5 and 407 registered voters in the second with a margin of error of 6.6).

The Marquette polls were also taken before Hong’s controversial 2021 social media posts about cancelling Thanksgiving made national news the first week of August (the fallout continued when she initially refused to walk back the statement in a CNN interview before reversing course in an interview with Politico, telling the outlet it’s her favorite holiday).

In a third highly cited poll by State Navigate taken Aug. 3-6—when the field was finalized—among 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters, Hong led with 44%, followed by Crowley with 22% and Wisconsin state Sen. Kelda Roys with 11%.

95.5%. Those were Hong’s odds of winning the race as of Monday, according to Kalshi. Her odds significantly narrowed to 58% by Tuesday afternoon.

The crowded field further complicated the dynamic—Roys won 7.5% of the vote and former state official Joel Brennan won 4.7%, shares large enough to significantly change the outcome if they weren’t on the ballot.

Hong, a state representative, narrowly lost to Crowley by 0.4 percentage points when the race was called early Wednesday by the Associated Press. The later polls weren’t too far off in predicting the share of votes Hong would win, 39.4%, but underestimated support for Crowley. He was endorsed by retiring Gov. Tony Evers, while Hong had the support of some prominent progressives, including Reps. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., and Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., though other progressive leaders, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., did not endorse in her race.