Nvidia is enduring a brutally difficult November, leaving investors to debate whether this severe downturn is merely a passing storm or the long-feared pin that finally bursts the artificial intelligence market bubble.

Shares plummeted to $166.95 on Tuesday, leaving the premier AI chipmaker down 18.42% for the month and completely erasing its gains for 2026. Two frantic sessions of selling obliterated more than $470 billion in market capitalization, marking Nvidia's most punishing five-day slide since 2022—eclipsing even the historical impact of the DeepSeek shock. The primary catalyst centers on a suspected Chinese espionage investigation involving U.S. authorities reviewing whether Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based chip buyer Megaspeed and a personal associate of CEO Jensen Huang, transmitted sensitive data to Beijing. Congressional Republicans have demanded answers, with House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Brian Mast raising the specter of a subpoena. Although Nvidia's board launched an independent review finding zero indication that national security or proprietary secrets were compromised—and no evidence that Huang intentionally divulged information—shareholders have nevertheless initiated a proposed class-action lawsuit.

Mounting Pressures Beyond the Boardroom

The regulatory and competitive headwinds do not stop there.

Reports surfaced that the White House has weighed aggressive new export controls on AI hardware destined for China, which could potentially encompass restrictions on remote computing access housed within international data centers. Furthermore, Nvidia has reportedly advised its cloud service partners to cap Chinese clientele at 49% of their overall operations. Adding to the commercial pressure, Google recently launched a fresh line of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) that directly challenge Nvidia's hardware dominance, with OpenAI reportedly evaluating the alternative architecture. Consequently, investment firm Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral, slashing its price target from $500 to $200 while pointing to leadership uncertainty surrounding Jensen Huang and the risk of reduced capital expenditures by major cloud providers in 2027.

Bubble Bursting or Historical Discount?

Critical answers loom on November 17 when Nvidia releases its quarterly financial results, occurring just one day prior to the closed-door congressional briefing requested by House Republicans. To evaluate the trajectory for investors, Market Mondays co-founder and Red Panda head Ian Dunlap—noted for his early bullish stance on tech giants like Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft—shared his strategic outlook.

Dunlap maintains a strongly optimistic view, though it comes with a strict strategic caveat.

“I think Nvidia is a tremendous buying opportunity for a long-term investor,” Dunlap stated, noting that his ideal accumulation target sits between $93 and $124—representing a potential 26% to 44% discount from Tuesday's valuation. Rather than fixating solely on Jensen Huang, Dunlap places greater emphasis on CFO Colette Kress, the board's eventual choice for permanent long-term leadership, and whether major enterprise GPU purchasers are successfully realizing a return on their massive investments.

Inside the Expert Q&A

John Koetsier: Is this a buying opportunity or a bubble bursting?

Ian Dunlap: I think Nvidia is a tremendous buying opportunity for a long-term investor. We may see AI spending come down across the industry, and some companies are going to have a hard time explaining what they got for all that money. If Nvidia gets down into the $93 to $124 range, I’d be very interested in buying and holding it for years.

John Koetsier: What does Nvidia need to deliver in its November 17 earnings?

Ian Dunlap: I’m expecting $107 billion to $109 billion in revenue for the quarter. The bigger question for me is what Colette Kress says about where she’s taking the company. The board, the institutions and the retail investors who’ve been with Nvidia for years all want to hear a clear plan. Even if they beat my number, that’s what I’ll be listening for.

John Koetsier: Is AI generating enough revenue to justify the investment?

Ian Dunlap: It depends on who’s writing the check. Nvidia has a considerable moat and is already making real money from AI. For the companies buying the chips, I want to know what they’re earning back on all that spending. If the rules around where Nvidia can sell its chips change, that can also affect how much growth it gets out of AI. I want to hear how Kress is thinking about that in her guidance.

John Koetsier: What happens if Big Tech cuts AI spending?

Ian Dunlap: Nvidia will feel it in the short term. I still think we’re in the early innings of AI, and I think the biggest opportunity for Nvidia is selling into businesses well beyond Big Tech. I want to see Kress build a plan that gives Nvidia more ways to grow. If Nvidia can help companies do three or four times as much work on specific tasks, those companies have a real reason to keep spending.

John Koetsier: Are Nvidia’s biggest customers becoming its competitors? (And, what about Google and its TPUs?)

Ian Dunlap: Absolutely. Google has the money and the engineering talent to build its own chips, and you’re going to see more big companies try to do the same thing. I’d like to see Nvidia help some of those companies build custom chips. Nvidia is still ahead of most of the field, and most businesses don’t have the people or the budget to build what Google can.

John Koetsier: How dependent is Nvidia on Jensen Huang?

Ian Dunlap: Let me be very clear. Jensen Huang is a once-in-a-lifetime CEO. Look at what he built over 30 years. Colette Kress is incredibly talented, and I’m watching closely to see who the board picks to lead Nvidia long term. I still believe the chip business, the software and the customer relationships Jensen built can keep Nvidia dominant for years.

John Koetsier: What AI stocks would you buy instead of Nvidia?

Ian Dunlap: Microsoft, Google, AMD and Taiwan Semiconductor.

John Koetsier: What’s the biggest warning sign of an AI crash?

Ian Dunlap: If several of the biggest AI companies come out and guide sharply lower for the next year, that’s the one I’m watching. A big cut in capital spending would get my attention, too. If we go into a global recession, I think some companies will put AI projects on hold for a couple of years.

John Koetsier: What would make you sell Nvidia?

Ian Dunlap: If we get a year down the road and I still don’t know who’s going to lead Nvidia or how they plan to take the lion’s share of enterprise AI, I’d sell. Those are the two things I need to see.

John Koetsier: Five years from now, will this look like a buying opportunity or a missed warning?

Ian Dunlap: I think five years from now people will wish they bought Nvidia here. I also think some of the circular spending in AI deserves a harder look. When companies are investing in each other and buying from each other, I want to know how much demand is coming from businesses that are paying because the technology actually saves them time or makes them money.