Waymo has officially revealed that its next-generation robotaxi platform will utilize the Toyota bZ4X, with its inaugural rollout scheduled for Tokyo. While partnering with a Japanese automotive giant makes strategic sense for an entry into Japan, this vehicle architecture is expected to expand globally. Notably, Toyota will integrate Waymo's specialized hardware directly onto its assembly lines.

As the largest automaker in the world, Toyota boasts a rich history with Waymo; the autonomous pioneer's very first prototype—excluding a Caddy golf cart—was a Prius, followed subsequently by a Lexus. Renowned for superior build quality, exceptional reliability, and high resale value, Toyota seemingly offers an unbeatable pedigree. Yet, a compelling historical footnote suggests this partnership could have involved Tesla instead.

Despite Toyota's stellar reputation, the manufacturer has moved cautiously regarding battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and does not currently lead that segment. Pricing and value leadership have shifted to Chinese manufacturers, with Korean automakers having previously overtaken Japan. Waymo has also utilized vehicles from China's Geely—though complicated by steep 125% tariffs and associated geopolitical hurdles—and plans to incorporate the Hyundai Ioniq 5.

Cost is Less Important than you Think

Currently, the price tag of the physical automobile represents a minor fraction of a robotaxi enterprise's overall expenditures. Companies pour billions into research and development, rendering the per-vehicle deployment cost almost negligible. As fleets scale up into commercially viable operations, the cost of goods sold (COGS) will matter more, but vehicle depreciation still accounts for roughly just one-third of a ride's cost. Ultimately, nobody is rushing to turn robotaxis into a low-margin commodity business competing purely on price.

Reliability is Less Important than you Think

Toyotas are celebrated for exceptional mechanical durability. For individual car buyers, avoiding breakdowns is paramount because unexpected failures disrupt daily routines with tows, service appointments, and rental cars, fostering frustration toward the manufacturer. Conversely, if a robotaxi encounters a non-safety-related mechanical glitch, it simply pulls over safely. Another autonomous vehicle arrives within minutes to transport the passenger, accompanied by a complimentary ride coupon. For the fleet operator, vehicle recovery is merely a spreadsheet calculation weighing maintenance expenses against overall savings.

Would the Tesla Cybercab Have Been a Great Waymo?

Although Tesla currently positions itself as a primary autonomous competitor to Waymo, the two entities could have easily forged an alliance. Tesla stands out as an innovative, Silicon Valley-style automaker—the exact profile favored by Alphabet and Waymo. Furthermore, Tesla has refined its manufacturing prowess, channeling those efficiencies into the Cybercab, projected to launch around $30,000 including camera systems.

In an alternate reality, Waymo might have contracted Tesla to install its proprietary sensor suites and computing units into a platform like the Cybercab. This configuration would deliver an efficient two-seater vehicle at an attractive price point, powered by Waymo's advanced autonomous software.

Such a collaboration was plausible because the executive teams once shared close personal ties. Founders of Alphabet, Google, and Waymo maintained strong friendships with Elon Musk. Sergey Brin and Larry Page frequently drove Teslas, socialized with Musk, and even stayed at each other's homes. Brin famously invested in Tesla during its financial struggles, and serious discussions took place in 2013 regarding a potential Google acquisition of Tesla as a means to fully realize the Waymo vision. The buyout never materialized as Musk successfully steered Tesla through its critical juncture, and subsequent personal and public disagreements ultimately dissolved the relationship.

Backed by Alphabet—one of the planet's wealthiest parent corporations—Waymo possesses the financial muscle to acquire nearly any major automaker aside from Tesla. If vertical integration proves advantageous, the resources are readily available. Meanwhile, Amazon's Zoox pursues custom-built autonomous pods, Uber collaborates with partners like Lucid and Nuro, and Tesla maintains a fully vertically integrated original equipment manufacturer model. With diverse ecosystems emerging globally—from Vinfast contract manufacturing to Hyundai-backed fleets and Volkswagen licensing supplier software—the marketplace is actively validating multiple strategic approaches.