Britain’s automotive industry, facing self-imposed existential threats from an over-ambitious electric-vehicle sales mandate and unrestrained Chinese imports, needs to take action soon to change the rules, according to analysts.

This would mean removing the current stipulation that electric vehicles must account for 80% of new car sales by 2030 in favor of the European Union’s roughly 60%. These U.K. zero emission vehicle (ZEV) rules set a 100% target for 2035 based on carbon dioxide emissions. And this is likely to be diluted along the lines of EU changes now cut to 90%.

The British market is also subject to unbridled Chinese auto imports from the likes of BYD , Chery and its Jaecoo and Omoda brands, and SAIC ’s MG. The EU has already imposed tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese EV imports benefiting from unfair government subsidies, on top of the 10% standard import tariff. The EU recently decided to curb Chinese imports of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as well.

The British market for EVs, although rising rapidly, is still not moving fast enough to meet the 2030 target, according to Professor David Bailey of the Birmingham Business School.

“The ZEV mandate requires an increasing proportion of manufacturers’ new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, rising from 33% in 2026 to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030. The problem is that demand isn’t keeping pace with the targets."

"September produced a record month for battery-electric vehicle sales, with almost 100,000 EVs registered. EVs accounted for 28.3% of September registrations and were up more than 36% on a year earlier. Great. That’s real progress. But even after this record month, EVs accounted for only 26.2% of registrations across the first nine months of 2026, compared with a 33% mandate target. That gap tells us something pretty important,” Bailey said in his “Blogs from the Blackstuff” .

The clamor for action to relieve the pressure on the U.K. auto industry has been mounting. Last week, Renault of France CEO Francois Provost declared the U.K. rules seeking an EV monopoly of new car sales were “stupid”.

“What is a good date for 100% electric? There is no good date because it’s stupid to ban non-electric cars,” Provost told the Sunday Times newspaper. That was surprising because Renault has been a leading light in introducing more affordable EVs to the European market including the Renault 5, Renault 4, Renault Twingo, and with its value brand Dacia’s Spring.

Renault doesn’t make vehicles in the U.K., but Toyota of Japan does and is considered a laggard in the provision of EVs. Toyota told the Daily Telegraph the so-called zero-emission vehicle mandate was not sustainable and didn’t reflect consumer demand. Toyota’s remarks were also interpreted as being an implied threat to its remaining a large-scale manufacturing in the U.K. Other big manufacturers include Nissan, JLR, BMW’s Mini and Stellantis’s Vauxhall.

Tim Tozer, former managing director of Vauxhall, agreed that Toyota’s remarks meant it was concerned about its production in the U.K.

The end of car production in the U.K.?

“Exactly one year ago I predicted that without significant change to the ZEV mandate and tariffs on Chinese imports we could well see the end of car production in the U.K,” Tozer said in a LinkedIn posting Monday.

“To avoid this, the British government needs to:

  • Secure made in Europe status for U.K. manufacturers in the forthcoming discussions with the EU, also ceding the EU tariff issue on Chinese imports.
  • Dramatically reshape the ZEV mandate in line with Toyota’s position,” Tozer said.

Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive doesn’t agree.

“If Renault is the test case, it shows the opposite of what’s being claimed. In the U.K., almost a third of the Renault Group cars sold this year have been fully electric. That puts it right on this year’s ZEV target. The mandate isn’t impossible; Renault is meeting it,” Nelmes said.

New AutoMotive works to accelerate the transition to EVs in the U.K. and globally.

“Across the whole U.K. market, electric cars are about 26% of new sales this year. That’s slightly more than manufacturers actually need once the flexibilities are counted. What the (sales) data shows is a gap between companies that invested early in electric cars and companies that didn’t. Weakening the targets now would reward the laggards at the expense of the companies that did the work, including those building electric cars in Britain,” Nelmes said

“On trade, the U.K. should aim to be treated as ‘Made in Europe’, and this weekend’s Franco-German proposal suggests that’s achievable. But access to the European market depends on rules of origin, not on copying Brussels’ CO2 targets. A strong U.K. home market for electric cars is a big part of why manufacturers invest here. Lowering our ambition doesn’t make U.K. factories more competitive in Europe; it gives them fewer customers at home,” Nelmes said.

Dr Charles Tennant, British automotive analyst, said when the U.K targets were set they seemed uncontroversial, but the pace of increase is nowhere near fast enough.

“Company car drivers in the U.K. have been lapping up battery electric cars due to very generous tax breaks, but it is the mass market retail side where there is insufficient appetite from customers for electric cars. Now Toyota has said the U.K. ZEV targets are not sustainable and has warned of sales cuts and refused to guarantee the future of its U.K. plant in Burnaston, Derbyshire, calling for the targets to be changed to meet real customer demand. Renault have been even more vocal,” Tennant said.

“Meanwhile, those same European manufacturers have been reining in their electric car investment plans to more realistically match customer demand. Now with U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham aiming to push for new post-Brexit deals with the EU at a summit next month I think this is when the U.K. ZEV targets will be relaxed to fall in line with the EU. But that may also mean that the U.K. may have to agree to impose EU style tariffs on Chinese electric cars being sold in the UK as well,” Tennant said.

Birmingham Business School’s Bailey said the current ZEV trajectory is too aggressive and too fast.

“The targets bear little relationship to the realities of consumer demand, affordability and the pace at which the market is actually transitioning. We are in danger of pursuing a policy timetable that runs ahead of the market, placing unnecessary pressure on manufacturers and potentially undermining investment in U.K. production. Worse, it risks provoking a political and consumer backlash that could ultimately damage the transition to electric vehicles itself,” he said.

“This is not an argument against decarbonization or the longer-term shift to electric vehicles. It is an argument for a more pragmatic and credible pathway that recognises market conditions and gives manufacturers and consumers a realistic chance to adapt. Aligning the U.K.’s approach more closely with the EU would make considerable sense, providing greater consistency for manufacturers operating across both markets. A 2035 target is perfectly reasonable. The priority should be to get the trajectory right, rather than insist on a timetable that risks becoming detached from reality,” Bailey said.