During a joint appearance with Iraq's oil minister, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar laid out an ambitious vision to transform the port city of Ceyhan into a premier global energy corridor, framing it as a resilient alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Bayraktar's objective involves boosting Iraqi oil pipeline throughput to as much as 2.5 million barrels daily.

The announcement came on October 5, arriving just ahead of Turkey's upcoming tenure as host of the United Nations COP31 climate conference in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya, where Environment Minister Murat Kurum is set to serve as conference president starting November 9.

The Dual Strategy of Ankara

These parallel developments underscore Turkey's contrasting approaches. In Antalya, the nation presents itself as an emerging champion of environmental leadership. Simultaneously, in the capital of Ankara, it leverages ongoing disruptions involving Iran to cement its status as an indispensable transit corridor for Middle Eastern oil and gas, thereby securing strategic leverage over resource-rich neighbors.

If it can flex its oil muscles, Turkey gains transit fees, a bigger stake in Iraq’s oil fields, and some control over Europe’s energy supply. It also gains a financial interest in the world burning more oil and gas, not less.

“I don’t expect any push from the Turkish presidency to the producer countries,” Ümit Şahin, coordinator of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Center, noted regarding fossil fuel expansion. Domestic production is scaling up as well; an analysis by Global Witness using Rystad Energy data projects that state-owned TPAO will nearly triple gas output by 2035. Furthermore, TPAO has inked at least 11 oil and gas agreements since Turkey's bid for the climate summit was confirmed, including a partnership with BP in Iraq.

Geopolitical Leverage and the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz has faced extensive closures since hostilities began on February 28. According to the International Energy Agency, roughly 20 million barrels of oil traversed the crucial waterway daily in 2025. Alternative bypass pipelines handle only a fraction of that volume and remain highly vulnerable. For instance, Saudi Arabia's trans-desert Red Sea pipeline was forced offline for nearly two weeks in September following drone strikes attributed by Riyadh to Iraq, while Kuwait lacks a bypass route entirely.

Iraq remains exceptionally vulnerable, with petroleum revenues accounting for over 90 percent of state expenditures, based on findings from the regional platform Amwaj.media. Prior to the conflict, Iraq exported about 3.6 million barrels daily via its southern port of Basra, a figure that dropped to 870,000 barrels per day by June.

With few alternatives to avoid the Gulf, Iraq relies heavily on the northern pipeline terminating at Ceyhan on Turkey's Mediterranean coastline—giving Ankara immense bargaining power.

Negotiations and Economic Stakes

Rather than renewing the 1973 treaty regulating the pipeline under original terms, Ankara allowed the pact to expire in July, subsequently replacing it with a temporary one-year stopgap to maintain oil flows while broader terms are negotiated.

  • Expanding pipeline utilization to its full 1.5 million barrels per day capacity
  • Integrating Kuwaiti and wider Gulf crudes along with Qatari natural gas exports
  • Securing transit fees and an expanded ownership stake for its state oil company in fields like Kirkuk
  • Obtaining rights to export domestic crude through the infrastructure
  • Resolving outstanding arbitration claims, including an approximate $1.5 billion award tied to past Kurdish oil exports

Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar estimates the combined annual economic value of hydrocarbons transiting this network at roughly $80 billion.

Describing the power dynamic, Mustafa Enes Esen, a researcher at the Institute for Diplomacy and Economy, noted in Amwaj.media that Iraq requires the transit route far more urgently than Turkey requires the agreement.

Caspian Connections and Green Contradictions

Turkey has historical precedent for such leverage. In 2009, as Europe pursued a Caspian gas pipeline bypassing Russia, Ankara stalled negotiations by demanding a 15 percent discounted share of Azerbaijani gas crossing its territory, according to the Jamestown Foundation.

Today, the Caspian region is regaining strategic prominence. Ceyhan already serves as the terminus for Azerbaijani crude, and Bayraktar has expressed ambitions to channel Turkmen gas directly into Europe, ensuring that any future transit architecture runs through Ankara.

Conversely, Turkey's green transition is genuinely underway. Ember data indicates wind and solar accounted for roughly 22 percent of national electricity generation in 2025, driven by a record 6.5 gigawatts of newly installed renewable capacity. The nation targets 120 gigawatts of renewables by 2035, a milestone likely to be highlighted in Antalya.

Yet, emissions continue to climb at a rapid pace, surging 4.2 percent in 2025—the sharpest increase among the 16 major economies responsible for over 1 percent of global greenhouse gases, per European Commission data. Coal still accounts for roughly a third of domestic power generation.

Ultimately, a profound contradiction defines Turkey's posture: while international climate summits demand a departure from hydrocarbons, Ankara's long-term energy strategy deepens its financial and geopolitical reliance on fossil fuels.