For years, business owners have been warned about the “Silver Tsunami,” the massive wave of baby boomer entrepreneurs expected to retire and put their businesses up for sale. The demographics behind that prediction are becoming very real. But there’s an interesting question we should be asking in 2026: Where is the tsunami of business sales?

Perhaps the Silver Tsunami isn’t one enormous wave of businesses hitting the market. Instead, we may be entering a much longer ownership transition, and not every business will successfully make it to the other side.

The Owners Are Getting Ready to Leave

The retirement wave itself isn’t imaginary. Recent research cited by Chase found that 40% of U.S. small-business owners expect to retire within the next decade. Yet 70% are either in the early stages of succession planning or don’t have a formal plan, and only 8% consider themselves fully prepared for the transition.

Similarly, the 2026 Zelle Small Business Pulse Report found that 49% of surveyed business owners over 50 plan to exit within the next decade. Clearly, a significant ownership transition is ahead. But an owner wanting to retire and a business successfully changing hands are two very different things.

If millions of aging owners automatically translated into millions of business sales, we might expect transaction activity to already be accelerating.

Recent marketplace data tells a different story.

BizBuySell reported that 2,117 U.S. businesses changed hands during the second quarter of 2026, down 10% from both the previous quarter and the same period in 2025.

That doesn’t mean buyers have disappeared. In fact, BizBuySell reports that demand continues to exceed the supply of quality businesses. What has changed is selectivity. Buyers and lenders are scrutinizing financial performance more closely and placing greater emphasis on the durability of earnings.

And that distinction, quality businesses, may ultimately define the Silver Tsunami.

Not Every Business Will Find a Buyer

One of the assumptions behind the Silver Tsunami narrative is that an enormous generation of retiring owners will create an equally enormous marketplace of acquisition opportunities.

But businesses aren’t interchangeable.

A company can provide its owner with a comfortable income for decades and still be difficult to sell.

If the owner generates most of the sales, maintains the important customer relationships, makes every major decision or holds critical knowledge that has never been transferred to employees, what exactly is a buyer purchasing when that owner leaves?

There can also be problems with customer concentration, inconsistent earnings, weak financial reporting, outdated systems or a lack of management depth. Those issues don’t necessarily prevent a business from operating successfully today. They can, however, make transferring ownership considerably more difficult.

The Silver Tsunami Could Become a Sorting Event

That changes how business owners should think about the coming transition. The important question isn’t whether millions of business owners will want to retire. They will.

The question is what happens to their businesses when they do.

Some will sell to outside buyers . Others will transfer ownership to family members, employees or management teams. Some owners will postpone retirement.

And some businesses may simply close.

Meanwhile, attractive businesses could find themselves in a very different position. Buyers searching for established companies may have plenty of opportunities to consider, which could make strong financial performance, recurring revenue, capable management and reduced owner dependence even more important.

The Silver Tsunami hasn’t disappeared. But it may look very different from the giant wave of business sales owners were once told to expect. A demographic wave doesn’t guarantee demand for your business.

If you’re hoping your company will eventually fund part of your retirement or create wealth for your family, don’t wait for the Silver Tsunami to deliver a buyer. Build the kind of business someone will want to own after you’re gone.

Melissa Houston, CPA, CEPA , is a Fractional CFO and business value advisor who helps founder-led businesses improve financial performance, build enterprise value and prepare for a future exit. She is the host of The Sellable Firm Podcast and author of Cash Confident: An Entrepreneur's Guide to Creating a Profitable Business .

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and are intended for informational purposes only. They should not be considered accounting, tax, legal, or financial advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals regarding their specific circumstances.