The numbers tell a striking story. The at-home matcha market has grown from roughly $130 million in 2023 to an estimated $200 million in 2025, according to internal data from Jade Leaf Matcha . By 2030, the company projects that figure could double. Analysts tracking the broader global market are equally bullish: the worldwide matcha industry is projected to reach $7.43 billion by 2030 , with North America posting the fastest growth of any region at a compound annual rate of nearly 8%.

But behind the TikTok-friendly cream tops and pastel-green lattes that now appear on menus from Brooklyn to Los Angeles (and in between), there is a more complicated story unfolding about supply, sourcing and whether the world can actually keep up with demand.

Just this week, CNBC featured a story of a young tech worker who decided to forgo her $250,000 salary to open a matcha cafe instead. In fact, matcha cafes have been cropping up across the U.S., beyond the major cities, as the love for matcha goes mainstream.

Yet matcha is not new. Dr. Andrew Weil, the integrative medicine physician and longtime matcha advocate, encountered it before most Americans had ever heard the word.

"On the second day that I was in Japan, back in November of 1959, my host mother took me next door to meet her neighbor who was a tea ceremony practitioner," he recalls. "This woman did a tea ceremony and presented me with a bowl of matcha and I was completely taken by it. First by the color, also by the whisk, which I just thought was marvelous, and the taste of it. I fell in love with it."

What followed was a decades-long effort to bring matcha to American consumers, one that failed twice before it finally took hold. In the 1970s, every time Weil traveled to Japan, he brought matcha back to the States and shared it with friends. Nobody had heard of it. In the 1980s, he went further, partnering with a matcha company in Japan and selling it through his website. That too was ahead of its time.

"Again, like the beneficial plant association, way ahead of its time," he says. The market simply was not ready. It would take another three decades, the rise of social media, a generational shift away from coffee and a global wellness movement before the timing finally aligned. This current wave represents his third attempt to make matcha a staple of American life, and for the first time, the country has come to meet him.

What drew him then, and what drives consumer interest now, is a combination of taste, ritual and biology that few beverages can match. Daniel Woldar, General Manager of Jade Leaf Matcha, points to the fall of 2024 as the inflection point for mainstream adoption.

"It had always been growing, but it really started accelerating about 18 months ago," he says. "That's when we started to see it take off on social media and really enter the mainstream."

Consumer interest in matcha has grown 19% year-over-year on social platforms, a figure that tracks closely with Jade Leaf's own data, he says: repeat purchase rates have climbed to 56% year-to-date, up nearly 12%, with average order values rising double digits. Roughly 40% of matcha drinkers now report replacing at least one daily cup of coffee with matcha.

The surge in demand has brought a more pressing question into focus: where is all this matcha actually coming from, and can the supply chain hold?

Jade Leaf's origins offer some context. The company was founded in 2014 as the importer of record for Kizuna, a Japanese collective of independent family-run farms in Uji, the region long considered the spiritual home of matcha. That direct relationship has become a competitive advantage in a market where most brands still buy through auctions.

"We're buying farm direct from those same farmers," Woldar explains. "We'll communicate the amount of matcha we're intent on purchasing well before the spring harvest even begins. We have reserves before we even make purchases." The distinction matters. Auction-based buying leaves brands vulnerable to price spikes and supply gaps. Direct relationships allow for financial investment in farm infrastructure and a continuity of quality that is difficult to replicate at scale.

Those conversations have become more urgent. Last year's widely reported matcha shortage caught much of the industry off guard. In part, it was a catch-up problem: milling capacity had not kept pace with demand. But the longer-term picture is more structural.

"You're seeing people go where the demand goes," Woldar says. China, the world's largest tea producer, is also shifting production toward matcha, Weil confirms, though Japan retains a significant quality advantage, particularly for ceremonial-grade product.

Weil, a proponent of regenerative agriculture, says, " we work directly with multi-generation tea farmers in Japan who prioritize soil health, sustainable cultivation, and transparency, which ensures that the leaves are rich in antioxidants and other vital nutrients. In a market driven by trends, these long-term relationships are what truly protect matcha's rich culture, as well as quality and health benefits.”

Both Weil and Jade Leaf source from Uji and both went direct to farmers rather than buying through auction, but they serve different markets. Weil’s MatchaKari , which he cofounded with Andre Fasciola, targets the premium, health-conscious consumer who trusts his medical credibility. Jade Leaf is focused on accessibility and scale.

One place where both quality and sourcing converge is the question of organics. Because matcha is a whole-leaf product, the way it is grown matters in ways that brewed tea does not.

"Matcha is the only form of tea in which the whole leaf is consumed," Weil notes. "You are consuming everything." That distinction carries implications for pesticide exposure that do not apply to steeped teas, where the leaf is removed before drinking.

Demand for organic matcha has surged 21.4% year-over-year globally, outpacing the overall category and placing additional pressure on an already strained supply. Jade Leaf sources approximately 90% to 95% of its matcha organically, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the broader Japanese market, where organic certification remains relatively rare.

The gap between conventional and organic in Japan, Woldar notes, is narrower than it might appear. "The farming techniques that they have in Japan are really quite clean naturally. They tend to be overly traditional, which also helps." The value of certification, in his view, is less about the farming itself and more about the assurance it provides. "With that assurity, we know we're getting the cleanest possible product that we can."

Weil adds that there is not nearly enough certified organic matcha to meet surging demand, especially as the health case for matcha grows more compelling. That case is rooted in the plant's unusual growing process.

"About three weeks before harvest, the plants are heavily shaded with shade cloth that cuts out about 70% to 80% of the sunlight," he explains. "In response to that, the leaves grow bigger and thinner and produce higher amounts of antioxidants and L-theanine."

That shading process is what gives matcha its most prized qualities, including its vivid color and its particular effect on the body.

“Matcha has the highest level of antioxidants and of L-theanine, the calming amino acid that modifies the effects of caffeine,” Weil adds. It takes the jittery edge off. Coffee produces a jangling effect in many people, there's often a crash. You don't see anything like that with matcha."

For now, the momentum is unmistakable, and unlikely to wane, says Weil.

The U.S. matcha market generated $164 million in 2024 and is projected to reach $340 million by 2033 . Roughly 65% of Jade Leaf's current customers came to the brand within the past year, Woldar says, suggesting the category is still in genuine expansion rather than simply cycling through existing enthusiasts. Household penetration sits at around 5%, compared to coffee's roughly 80%. For Woldar, that gap is the story.

"This is a beverage that, if you talk to anybody in the matcha space, we'll tell you it's better for you than any better-for-you beverage. It's making sure the consumer understands that, has access to it, and is really able to enjoy matcha the way they want to enjoy it."

Weil, who has been making a similar case since before most of today’s matcha drinkers were born, is not surprised that it took this long. Some things, he knows from experience, require the world to catch up. After six decades and three attempts, it finally has. He hopes that his tea-drinking roots will finally become mainstream in the US, one day going beyond even matcha.