Four months after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX remains a polarizing stock — trading 26% below its June 2026 all-time high of $225. That is a big improvement from the stock’s low of $105 in early August .

Are the shares a bargain at a market capitalization of $2.2 trillion? On conventional fundamentals, the company could be 40% to 64% over-valued. Yet many bullish analysts — most of whom work for banks that would love to help SpaceX raise capital — put a very high value on SpaceX’s AI business.

Since I wrote about SpaceX before its June IPO, the company delivered mixed second-quarter results. Revenue beat estimates and nearly doubled to $7.81 billion , according to Yahoo Finance, and Starlink reached 12 million subscribers . But with Starlink as the only profitable segment, SpaceX’s AI unit spent $15.8 billion on capital expenditures.

Wall Street remains divided on where SpaceX stock goes next — down or up almost 3.8-fold to $800, according to Raymond James .

Why Some Analysts Say SpaceX Looks Overvalued

At 79 times sales, SpaceX ranks among the most expensive mega-cap stocks ever listed, reported Morningstar . Analyst Nicolas Owens estimates the company’s fair value at $62 a share , implying the stock trades at close to three times what it is worth. In his full report , Owens assigns a mere 7% chance to a so-called “moonshot” scenario in which SpaceX’s AI business wins 20% of the 2024 AI computing market.

NYU’s Aswath Damodaran, the “dean of valuation,” estimated SpaceX’s equity at about $1.3 trillion — roughly 44% below the current market value, or about $100 a share .

Damodaran objects to the prospectus’s $26 trillion addressable market for AI , which he called beyond plausible. Yet he warned that since momentum traders dominate trade in SpaceX shares, being right on valuation does not mean the stock will fall.

Why Bulls Think SpaceX Could Go Much Higher

The average price target for SpaceX is $235 , according to TipRanks , suggesting the shares are about 40% undervalued.

Revenue will rise to $319 billion by by 2030 , according to Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who has a $300 base case and a $600 bull case . He called SpaceX a “potential generational compounder,” and assigned more than half of his target to SpaceX’s merger with xAI, with the rest split between launch services and Starlink connectivity.

The bulls base their case on contracted AI revenue. For instance, Anthropic is forecast to pay $1.25 billion a month through May 2029 , and Google agreed to pay $920 million a month from October 2026, according to CNBC .

SpaceX also has a $4.16 billion Space Force award for Golden Dome tracking satellites, per Reuters , and a $2.29 billion network contract .

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America offer bullish guidance, and they helped underwrite the IPO .

Why Bears Question The AI Story

The AI contracts are less locked in than they look. Yahoo Finance reported Google may terminate immediately after a one-month grace period or accept a reduced amount with prorated fees unless SpaceX delivers the promised capacity by the end of September 2026. As of Oct. 7, there was no official confirmation of whether SpaceX supplied that capacity.

There are other concerns: As the prospectus disclosures on Musk’s control show , Elon Musk’s 85.1% voting power allows him to control shareholder approvals.

NASA’s inspector general has noted schedule and safety concerns for the Starship lunar lander . Amazon is competing with SpaceX — building a Starlink rival after an FCC waiver . And SpaceX cannot join the S&P 500 before June 2027 , and its generally accepted accounting principal losses could keep it out longer.

Here are some short-term indicators to track:

  • Starship Flight 15. This flight is currently scheduled for no earlier than Oct. 19 . Success would be positive, and a failure or long delay would weigh on the stock.
  • Third-quarter earnings. The date has not yet been confirmed . Watch AI revenue, Starlink pricing and capital spending .
  • Lockup expirations. The first unlock pressured the shares, according to CNBC . Up to 1.3 billion shares — 28% of the locked pool — unlock two trading days after the next report. Up to 797.6 million more follow around Dec. 8, because a 455.8 million-share conditional tranche never triggered and rolled forward.
  • Short interest and volatility. Short interest and a very high beta mean AI sentiment and interest-rate moves can affect SpaceX stock.

The current stock price reflects optimism about AI-computing revenue. If the Anthropic and Google contracts become durable, high-margin profit, the Street’s optimistic targets look reachable and Morgan Stanley’s $300 is plausible.

If they don’t, the fundamental anchors of $62 to $100 a share show how far the stock could fall. That gap is the real story, and it argues for careful position sizing rather than conviction in either direction.