One Giant Conflict For Mankind . That was the name of a panel discussion I participated in at HowThe LightGetsIn , an amazing science and arts festival in England. The topic was Space Warfare .

Over the few years, it’s become clear that space is becoming yet another domain where humans play out their penchant for conflict. The panel description framed this situation and the questions it raises this way:

The US first tested their ability to attack satellites in space back in 1985. Russia had already done the same thing, and now, in the last few years, China and India have joined them. Space technology can also have impact on Earth. Musk’s satellites have supported Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Should we recognize that space exploration for the good of all is always a fantasy — after all, the Americans also planted their flag on the moon? Can international agreement help maintain peace, or will the strongest always play by their own rules? Or can and should we still see space as an exciting adventure that can bring profound benefits to humanity?

In my response to these questions, I made it clear that I am a realist. I know human beings wage war. We have done so in every domain we’ve ever entered. This is simply history. Conceding that point, however, does not change the fact that waging war in space would be stupid in the most philosophically profound sense of that word.

The reason I choose the word “stupid” to describe the situation we face can, itself, be summed up in two other words: Kessler Syndrome.

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is the region of space between 100 and 1200 miles above our head. From Communications to Climate Science to Military reconnaissance, LEO is where most of our satellites live. That makes it the most obvious contested domain for space warfare. A few nations have already anti-satellite weapons that could blow up an enemy’s satellites as they zoom through LEO. That’s where the problem starts.

In 1978 NASA scientists Donald Kessler figured out that any kind of collision between machines in orbit would lead to a dangerous unstoppable cascade. The debris from an initial collision spreads out through leading to other collisions and more debris. Soon so much debris is created that the entire LEO band of space becomes uninhabitable for functioning satellites.

This is the Kessler Syndrome.

What’s remarkable is that with more than 12,000 satellites already in LEO , many scientists believe we are already close to triggering the Kessler Syndrome. If, however, we were to purposely start blowing up satellites, we would all but guarantee that Kessler’s nightmare becomes reality.

Because even small bits of broken up satellites would be dangerous, there would be no way to “clean” up LEO. Worse still, the debris created in a Kessler Syndrome would persist for decades if not centuries. Space would, for all intents and purposes would become unusable for us. It might not even be safe to launch rockets through the blanket of debris. We might, literally, become trapped on Earth.

This is where the “stupid” comes in.

Knowing about the Kessler Syndrome, it seems to me that warfare in LEO is not immoral, it’s just dumb. Blow up a tank and its carcass stays in the field. Blow up a satellite and it creates thousands of fragments travelling at 17,000 mph. These fragments threaten not only your own assets, (i.e. satellites), it creates conditions that permanently excludes your ability to ever use those assets. This is the case no matter who “wins” the conflict.

The Kessler Syndrome shows how different war in orbit would be from anything else that’s ever come before. The fundamental logic of warfare — seize ground and hold it— makes no sense hundreds of miles above the Earth where everything is moving. You cannot “hold” an orbit or seize space territory.

That’s why it’s time to move quickly and boldly to develop new international treaties and norms around the militarization of space. Like I said, I’m a realist. This is not about holding hands and singing Kumbaya. We managed to keep nuclear wars from being fought not because we discovered love but because we realized ways to work towards mutual self-interest. So far, no space battle has ever been fought. No satellites have yet been blown up in a conflict. If we begin aggressively seeking agreements now, we can keep the high frontier open for everyone. That would be the opposite of stupid.