While Steam Chart badgering has mostly focused on one extraction shooter, Marathon , that’s started to be amplified with another game in the genre, one that launched to blinding success: ARC Raiders.

Both Marathon and ARC Raiders debuted within the same approximate window, but ARC surged early, praised as an accessible entry in the genre. Though now, social media is obsessed with what they call the downfall of ARC Raiders over time, saying it “must be studied,” which has almost become a sort of meme.

Is that too harsh? I think downfall is a bit extreme, but we have seen significant drops in just ten months since release, and there do not seem to be any signs of a turnaround, new updates ahead or not.

To start, I think there’s the data we simply don’t know: Embark’s expectations. ARC Raiders was a hit at a level no one, including Embark, saw coming, and there is no reason to think the game is in “danger” despite these drops. The Finals , for instance, Embark’s other shooter, eventually settled at a consistent , not terribly high player count, and it remains supported to this day.

The ARC Raiders drop? The consistency was there for a while. ARC was performing at an extremely high level for November, December and January, even nearly its launch peak in late December after the Cold Snap addition.

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After that, consistent declines . The 400,000 concurrents near the beginning of February have settled into 30,000 or so presently. Embark has promised bi-annual updates for the game, so as a live offering, it’s not exactly doing things other games in the genre are doing like 3-month seasons. Its most recent offerings, however, Shrouded Sky and Riven Tides , did nothing to reverse the trend for more than a week or so.

I think two things can be true. The drop-off is significant, in the last seven or so months in particular, and it is certainly notable how un-sticky the ARC Raiders has become since then. That said, I think the numbers we’re at now may be closer to what Embark was expecting in the first place, and everything above that was a bonus. The Finals , as mentioned, is doing about 14,000 players concurrently a night. 30,000 for this game, plus console, seems like it could be just fine for Embark for the long term. And there’s nothing to say that a hugely significant update couldn’t turn things, even if we haven’t seen that so far. Its next update, Frozen Trail, will be released on October 8. It will have a new vertical map, outpost progression, skill tree changes and new weapons, gadgets, cosmetics and so on. More will be shown off in September.

The drop-off can’t be ignored. This is not a single-player game you’re meant to beat and move on from. It’s a live game that is meant to retain players over time. That said, if it can retain players at this level, or close to it, depending on Embark’s expectations, that may be just fine, and those that love the game are likely going to see a lot more content for a while to come.

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