The chances of a widespread display of northern lights have fallen for Wednesday, Sept. 9, after anticipated eruptions from the sun failed to arrive as expected — although a stronger G2 geomagnetic storm capable of pushing aurora farther south remains possible.

The latest space weather forecast from the UK Met Office retains a likelihood of minor G1-class geomagnetic storm conditions and a chance of moderate G2 storming on Wednesday. However, its latest aurora forecast is a significant downgrade from earlier forecasts, which suggested that up to three coronal mass ejections that left the sun on Sept. 5 and 6 could combine with elevated solar wind and potentially trigger a stronger geomagnetic storm.

According to Spaceweather.com , a pair of CMEs expected to arrive on Sept. 8 appear to have missed Earth, though NOAA thinks they could arrive on Sept. 9, causing a G1-class geomagnetic storm.

If G2 conditions do develop, aurora could potentially become visible from around 20 U.S. states. However, that now seems unlikely.

What Happened To The Solar Storm?

After impressive displays of aurora on Monday night in places like North Dakota as well as Canada and Iceland , the anticipated CME activity has so far been later and weaker than expected. Two brief periods of G1 geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on Tuesday, but there’s uncertainty is what happens next.

The UK Met Office says up to three CMEs could still potentially reach Earth on Wednesday and may have merged while traveling through space, possibly arriving as a single event — something colloquially known as a “cannonball CME.” Its current headline therefore remains “G1/Minor storm likely, chance of G2/Moderate Storm” for Sept. 9. However, with the expected CME arrivals failing to materialize as forecast, the probability of significant impacts has fallen.

Northern Lights Forecast Wednesday

A G1 geomagnetic storm would most likely favor aurora across Alaska and the northernmost contiguous U.S., potentially including parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

If conditions unexpectedly reach G2, the aurora could potentially extend farther south towards states including Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

That would put parts of around 20 states within the potential viewing area, but skywatchers should treat that as a possibility rather than an expectation.

Aurora-chasing website Cosmik has live odds for all states and 552 cities in 10 languages, updated from NOAA’s data, so you can check whether your location may see aurora tonight.

Aurora Alert: Latest Updates

To check visibility in real time, use NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast or download apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast or Glendale Aurora for up-to-the-minute alerts and live solar wind data.

Whether an aurora display materializes depends partly on the interplanetary magnetic field, particularly its north-south component, known as Bz. When Bz turns southward, the solar wind can transfer energy into Earth’s magnetic environment more efficiently, increasing the chances of geomagnetic activity and brighter auroras. The longer and more strongly Bz remains southward, the better the prospects, although solar wind speed and other factors also play an important role. You’ll find Bz data in some of the above apps and on SpaceWeatherLive.com .

How To Photograph The Northern Lights

If auroras do appear, they can sometimes be much more obvious to a camera than to the naked eye. Even faint auroras that appear grey to the eye can show vivid greens, reds or purples in photographs. How to photograph the northern lights with a phone :

  • Use a tripod or stable surface to avoid blur, and enable Night Mode or Pro Mode if available.
  • Exposure times of five to ten seconds are typically effective.
  • Shooting in RAW format, if possible, makes editing easier later.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.