Northern lights could return to the night sky above parts of up to around 22 states in the U.S. and across Canada overnight on Thursday, Oct. 8, and into the early hours of Friday, Oct. 9, in the wake of Tuesday’s “full halo” coronal mass ejection on the sun.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a geomagnetic storm for the period, stating that G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm conditions are likely when the CME reaches Earth.

A CME is an eruption of solar material and magnetic fields from the sun that takes a few days to reach Earth. NOAA said it left the sun on Oct. 6 in the wake of a long-lasting M1.4 flare. It’s a “halo” CME because, in coronagraph images from LASCO instrument aboard NASA’s SOHO spacecraft, the expanding cloud of solar material appears to surround the sun.

If aurora reaches the northern U.S., a smartphone camera may detect faint colors that are difficult to see with the naked eye — most likely low on the northern horizon.

Northern Lights Alert For Thursday, Oct. 8 And Friday, Oct. 9

According to a forecast by space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a G1-class geomagnetic storm could begin around 11 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Oct. 8, with Kp 5 conditions. That could be followed around 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 9, with Kp 5.67 conditions. “G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME,” NOAA said.

According to a forecast by the UK Met Office, “Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is forecast until the CME arrival, with an Expected chance of a G1/Minor Storm, and a Chance of a G2/Moderate storm at peak on Day 3 (09 Oct).” It added that conditions would ease into the weekend.

Nothing is guaranteed because the exact strength of any geomagnetic storm depends on the speed, density and magnetic orientation of the incoming solar material when it reaches Earth.

Northern Lights Forecast For The U.S.

“The aurora may become visible over some northern and upper Midwest states from New York to Idaho,” stated NOAA on its website.

If G1 conditions develop as forecast, those in Alaska and northern states in the contiguous U.S. (Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire) may see or be able to photograph aurora, particularly from dark locations near the Canadian border.

Should geomagnetic activity strengthen to G2 levels, the auroral oval could expand farther south, potentially allowing photographers in states such as Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania and New York to capture faint displays.

Aurora-chasing website Cosmik has live odds for all states and 552 cities in 10 languages, updated from NOAA’s data, so you can check whether your location may see aurora tonight.

How To See The Northern Lights In The U.S. And Canada

The timing is good for skywatchers and photographers. With a new moon on Oct. 10, rural skies will be dark. That matters because faint auroras are easier to see and photograph under dark skies. Skywatchers hoping to witness aurora should head to a dark location with unobstructed views of the northern horizon.

A G1 forecast does not guarantee the northern lights will appear from any particular location, and apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast or Glendale Aurora should be used for up-to-the-minute alerts and live solar wind data. Aurora visibility will ultimately depend on the strength of the solar wind, cloud cover, light pollution and the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field.

The latter — measured as Bz — will matter once the CME reaches Earth. A sustained southward Bz can favor stronger coupling between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field, increasing the potential for auroral activity to be seen farther south than expected. If Bz remains northward, however, the resulting display may be weak or restricted to higher latitudes.

The sun has an 11-year cycle during which its magnetic activity waxes and wanes. It’s now waning from its solar maximum in late 2024, but the two years after are known for frequent auroral displays.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.