September 11 is a date of reflection for many people. The date also falls close to the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of September 11, 2026, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin. That makes for a historic moment in the modern satellite era for tracking hurricanes.

Why September 11 Is Historic

The date for the latest hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin is September 11, and interestingly, it happened twice. We have been able to track storms with satellites for sixty years, Hurricane Gustav set the initial record for latest hurricane formation in 2002. Eleven years later, Hurricane Humberto also formed on September 11. You might be asking why these storms are not the “A” storm if they were the first hurricanes of the year. Like 2026, there were named tropical storms before September 11. However, they just did not reach hurricane status.

Climatologically speaking, we are sitting at roughly the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. By this point in an “average” year, we would have seen 8 named storms and 3 hurricanes. Of the hurricanes, at least one has reached major hurricane status by September 11. In 2026 so far, there have been 5 tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard).

Below-Normal Atlantic Activity Was Expected

While historic, a below-normal Atlantic season was expected because of the strengthening El Niño. “The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors,” NOAA stated in a May press release . “The Atlantic basin, meanwhile, (is) laboring under unfavorable wind shear conditions,” according to NASA. Hurricane Gustav, which set the initial record for the latest hurricane, was also during an El Niño year. Humberto formed under neutral conditions.

On the other hand, El Niño tends to be associated with increased activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins due to the abnormally warm waters. I certainly do not need to tell the people of Hawaii how active the season has been. They are still recovering from several impactful storms including most recently, Hurricane Lowell.

What’s particularly astounding about the current El Niño pattern is that it is quite strong well before when the phenomenon typically peaks. Climatologist Zeke Hausfather’s post below on X puts it into stark perspective. We are trending towards possibly the strongest El Niño on record as peaks usually happen during late fall or winter. While trying not to be too hyperbolic, I told one colleague at the University of Georgia, it could be the strongest El Niño that anyone alive has witnessed.

As for the Atlantic basin, the National Hurricane Center expects no tropical activity within the next seven days. Candidly, I took a peak at the longer range forecast models. From my meteorological perspective, I really do not see any hurricanes forming even beyond a week. Which means 2026 will soon hold the record exclusively.