My calendar says it is October 1st. In a normal year, we would have seen nearly ten named storms in the Atlantic basin by this date. Of those ten storms, at least five of them likely became hurricanes, and two of them reached at least Category 3. These numbers are based on data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from 1991 to 2021. In 2026, there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Will we make it through the entire Atlantic hurricane season without one?

Any Potential Hurricanes On The Horizon?

The most recent Tropical Weather Outlook issued Thursday morning by the National Hurricane Center is pretty clear. “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days,” according to NHC forecasters. This suggests that we will certainly make it through the first week of October without a hurricane. I took a peek at some of the longer-range weather models. While there are some potential signals to watch in the Gulf, there is conflicting information on whether anything develops. Even if it does, it is not clear that it would reach hurricane status.

As a professional weather expert, it is important to acknowledge such signals but not overplay them as many “social mediarologists” tend to do these days. I will keep watching closely, but there is a very real possibility that we get to the middle of October without a hurricane. At that point, we will only be a few weeks away from the end of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Why No Hurricanes In The Atlantic Basin?

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article asking if we could get to October without a hurricane. The answer is “yes” in my best Musiq Soulchild voice. That reference might require a quick web search for some of you. Here’s the bottom line. A quiet Atlantic Season was always expected. “As many professionals have explained for months, El Niño is the primary culprit for suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this season,” I wrote recently at Forbes.com . “It has been understood for decades that a moderate-to-strong El Niño disrupts the ocean-atmosphere system in ways that limits hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and boosts it in the Pacific basin,” My article continued. There are no conspiracy theories, cloud seeding, or halting of climate change. It’s El Niño doing what El Niño does.

Hawaii has seen an unprecedented number of Hurricane Watches this season. As I write this, the Pacific Basin continues to be quite active with Tropical Storm Nolo just west of the Hawaiian Islands, Hurricane Rachel to the west of Mexico, and two new developing systems being monitored by NHC forecasters. The El Niño that is continuing to get stronger is already one of the strongest on record and likely will be the strongest one that any human alive has seen. We have not even reached the peak strengthening months, and it is already a monster.