The next Apple keynote, heralding the release of the iPhone 18 Pro, for instance, may be earlier than I’ve been predicting, a respected industry voice has said. Here are the details, and why I disagree.

The iPhone 18 Pro Keynote Date Projections

This is the crucial date as the release follows like clockwork — usually.

Apple’s next big products will be the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and the company’s first foldable, possibly called the iPhone Ultra. Apple Intelligence will be one of the most-anticipated upgrades on board. A report from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests the special event where they’re unveiled could be on Tuesday, Sept. 8, and not Wednesday, Sept. 9 as I’ve been saying .

In answer to the question, “When will Apple announce the next iPhones?” in his recent Power On newsletter, Gurman made several points.

“Apple’s September iPhone events tend to follow a familiar playbook: They’re usually held on the first Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day, giving Apple enough time to get the new phones on sale by mid-September, lock in a couple of weeks of fourth-quarter revenue and stock the channel ahead of the holiday season,” he said.

Analyzing Apple's Historical September Cadence

The exact calendar date changes most years.

Labor Day falls, as you know, on the first Monday of September and therefore must be between Sept. 1 and Sept. 7. So, you’d have thought there would be some years when the keynote would be on Sept. 2 or Sept. 3, for instance. In fact, in the last 10 years the keynote has never been held earlier than Sept. 7, so Apple often holds the event in the week after Labor Day, not the day after.

This year, Labor Day is the latest possible date, Monday, Sept. 7.

“That cadence is carefully mapped out by Apple’s marketing, finance and operations teams, and there’s little reason to think this year will be any different,” Gurman went on. I agree that this year will follow the regular schedule.

“With that in mind, the most likely date for the debut of the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and foldable iPhone is Sept. 8, with Sept. 9 as the runner-up. It’s hard to see it landing anywhere else,” he concluded.

Why Tuesday, Sept. 8 Is A Non-Starter For iPhone 18 Pro

Keynotes don’t routinely fall the day after a public holiday.

I think Gurman has the right week — it’s still possible Apple could hold off until Monday, Sept. 14 if something went awry in production, for instance, but I think that’s highly unlikely.

But I think Tuesday, Sept. 8 is not right. Since the Monday is a public holiday, and Apple flies press in from around the U.S. (and the world) for the keynote, the company doesn’t like to bust into that holiday for those guests, or indeed its staff.

As such, Sept. 8 is a non-starter, I’d say. The second date Gurman mentions, Wednesday, Sept. 9, is the one that I believe is secretly marked in Cupertino calendars.

Apple iPhone 18 Pro Predicted Onsale Date

When the iPhones will reach customers seems as clear as ever, though.

You can read a full schedule of what I expect to happen when this fall here . The good news is that either way, the release date for the iPhone 18 Pro will be the same: the Friday in the week after the keynote. This year, that means Sept. 18.