At the time of writing early Saturday morning, three hurricanes are present in the Pacific basin. Hurricane Marie, the storm closest to the U.S. coast, is expected to move northwestward into colder waters and weaken by midweek. Over the past week, some “social media-rologists” were talking about this storm hitting Los Angeles. That’s a hard no. Smaller Hurricane Karina will weaken as it moves north of the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane Lowell is a major hurricane with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour. Though a direct landfall is not expected, the islands of Hawaii will be impacted. Here are my thoughts on what to expect from Lowell as well as some perspective on why the Pacific basin has been so active.

What To Expect From Major Hurricane Lowell

Hurricane Lowell is now a Category 4 storm. “Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night,” wrote forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. “There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches will likely be issued on Saturday,” They went on to say.

The moisture, sea surface temperatures and wind shear environment are favorable for Lowell to maintain major category intensity. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides could start to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and into Labor Day week. The hurricane will produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in Kauai and the Big Island, depending on location. Maui could see 2 to 4 iches. I should note that it would not be surprising to see 8 to 12 inches of rainfall in some isolated regions and in more elevated terrain. Life-threatening rip currents and surf from the hurricane-generated swells are also possible.

Why Hawaii Is Being Affected By So Many Hurricanes This Year

If it feels like Hawaii has been a bit more in the line of hurricane fire this year, you are not imagining things. The Pacific basin has seen 13 named storms this year, and it is far from being over. “Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes,” noted the NOAA website. We typically do not expect the 13th named storm in the basin until around October 2nd. Even as I type this article, NHC is watching another area that has a 60% chance of further development within the next week.

We are in the midst of a strong El Niño , and it is expected to get stronger. The abnormally warm waters in the eastern Central Pacific Ocean can boost hurricane activity in the basin. Ironically, it also causes changes in atmospheric wind patterns that reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Currently, we are on pace to break a record for the latest formation of a hurricane in that Atlantic basin. Hurricane Gustav (2012) and Hurricane Humberto (2013) hold the record for latest-forming hurricanes. They both formed on September 11. I suspect we will break this record this year.