Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane. That means it will reach at least Category 3 intensity, according to the National Hurricane Center. In almost every piece that I have written about this storm, I have left open the possibility of it overperforming from an intensity perspective. Founder and Principal at Inclement LLC Bradford Johnson always makes a great point. The weather expert has repeatedly said, “Never trust a hurricane in the Gulf.” Here is the latest information on Hurricane Isaias as we enter the weekend.

Why Hurricane Isaias Is Getting Stronger

As of 5:30 am eastern standard time, Hurricane Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and was moving towards the north-northeast at 15 miles per hour. That is a high-end Category 2 hurricane and by the time you read this, the storm is likely to be at Category 3 intensity with winds near 120 miles per hour. Overnight, the storm continued to feed on very warm Gulf waters and a moist environment.

While a less favorable wind shear environment has always been anticipated, meteorologists like me have seen examples of storms intensifying under unfavorable wind conditions. In 2018, Hurricane Michael devastated parts of the panhandle of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. It strengthened under adverse wind conditions.

Here’s why we think the storm has a bit more intensification to go. “Isaias will likely become a major hurricane soon with the improving satellite imagery, and it could continue to intensify for the next 12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water,” wrote NHC forecasters early Friday morning. While they note anticipated shear just before landfall and potential weakening, they also include an ominous caveat. “This is a tenuous spot because it would only take about a 6 hour delay in the onset of the shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore,” Forecasters continued. Some of the better-performing AI models like Google Deepmind as well as the hurricane-scale models have been signaling major hurricane for a few days now.

Things To Be Aware Of Before Landfall

Hurricane Isaias will feature damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, flooding rains, and the threat of tornadoes, particularly to the right of the center. “The wind field is also predicted to grow due to a trough interaction, and some of these impacts will extend well away from the center. After landfall, gusty winds are expected to reach well inland over portions of the southeastern United States,” note the NHC discussion. This point is very important and was the subject of dinner conversation with my wife last night.

She asked why we were expecting to get wind gusts exceeding tropical storm intensity in the Atlanta area when the storm would be in Alabama and Mississippi. I showed her a map and pointed out that hurricanes are not points or lines on a map. They are large broad areas with impacts well beyond the line or cone.

Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday morning near Mobile Bay. Here are the key messages from the National Hurricane Center as of Friday morning.

  • Life-threatening storm surge from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida.
  • Damaging hurricane force-winds in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
  • Damaging wind gusts into much of central and northern Alabama, eastern Mississippi, and parts of western and northern Georgia, particularly in areas of elevated terrain.
  • Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flooding, in the central U.S.Gulf coast and Southeast for the weekend, and into the Mid-Atlantic region after the weekend.

Such conditions will impact lives, property, college and NFL football games, and more. Here’s the bottom line. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season will make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast with significant impacts. Take it seriously and resist motivated reasoning in decision-making or placing people in harms way.