Hurricane Fausto is moving towards the Hawaiian Islands. While the Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet. The eastern Pacific basin has been active. Fausto is the sixth named storm of the Pacific season. Hurricane Genevieve just became the first category 5 storm in the basin, but it is not expected to impact land. Fausto, however, will move close enough to the Hawaiian Islands that some degree of attention is warranted.

Will It Actually Hit Hawaii?

At the time of writing Monday morning, Hurricane Fausto was moving at 14 miles per hour towards Hawaii with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour. On its current track it is expected to skirt just north of the islands. That’s the first bit of good news. The second piece of good news is that the storm is expected to weaken over the next several days as it gets closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

“Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less favorable for Fausto during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface temperatures,” according to the National Hurricane Center. Vertical wind shear is also expected to increase. "By the time Fausto moves north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest winds confined to the northern side of the circulation," NHC went on to say.

Hurricanes Are Not Dots On Maps

Though a weakening storm is expected to move north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is important to remember that hurricanes are not “dots” on a map. Weather associated with the storm and its spiral bands can cover broad areas, so I would not be surprised if some of the islands experience winds, rainfall, and swells as the storm passes north of Hawaii. “Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward across the state along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands…. Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed shores,” cautioned Hurricane Center forecasters.

Hurricanes Do Not Strike Hawaii Often

The fate of Fausto is not unusual. Hurricanes rarely strike the Hawaiian Islands directly. Both of those storms struck Kauai. “Only 11 hurricanes have passed within 70 miles of the Big Island, Maui, Oahu or Kauai, according to NOAA’s historical hurricane database,” wrote Jonathan Belles and Jon Erdman for The Weather Channel last year.

This may be surprising, but meteorology, oceanography and geography are primary factors. High pressure to the northeast of Hawaii is like a meteorological defense system for the state. It tends to help weaken approaching storms or steer them away. Additionally, waters tend to be cooler north and east of the state. Fausto is moving through marginally warm waters but will encounter cooler sea surface temperatures north of the islands as seen on the map below.

The map also shows very warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Central Pacific Ocean associated with the emerging strong El Niño. During El Niño years, the eastern Pacific hurricane season, unlike the Atlantic season, tends to see increased activity.