The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a Tropical Depression in the Pacific Ocean. In the coming hours and days, the storm is expected to become Tropical Storm Nolo before intensifying to hurricane status. Here’s what you need to know about future Hurricane Nolo and potential impacts for Hawaii.

Satellite images confirm that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is taking shape and developing that “look.” While banding features are becoming better defined on the northern and western flanks of the storm, the low-level circulation is not currently in optimal alignment with the deep convection, according to NHC forecasters. “The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level circulation as seen on satellite,” noted the NHC Wednesday afternoon discussion . “However, after the system develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture and SSTs from 28-29C,” continued forecasters on the NHC website. Many of the best weather models anticipate another rapidly-intensifying hurricane.

What Is Rapid Intensification?

We define rapid intensification as a storm that gains roughly 35 miles per hour of sustained wind speed in less than 24 hours. Only days ago, Hurricane Polo went through explosive intensification in the eastern Pacific basin. Studies suggest that rapid intensification is happening more frequently and at rates well beyond the traditional definition. A 2025 study published in the journal Nature Communication found that from 1980 to 2020 storms experienced rapid intensification within 400 km of global coastlines. In fact, the number of RI events tripled over the forty-year period. Warming ocean temperatures are the primary culprit noted the study. Additionally, storms in the Pacific basin this year are getting a boost from El Nino-warmed seas.

How Will Future Nolo Impact Hawaii?

When Hurricane Nolo eventually forms, it is expected to reach major hurricane status. The storm is expected to slow down briefly and then head northward towards the Big Island of Hawaii. As it approaches the Big Island, it is expected to make a “hard right turn" to the west. “At this time frame, it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen,” cautioned NHC. Either way, the Big Island and other parts of the Hawaiian Islands could experience what NHC called "life-threatening catastrophic flooding," especially in elevated terrain. The islands should also prepare for high winds, storm surge, and elevated surf given the expected position of the storm by Thursday and Friday.

I will continue to monitor and update this space as the storm evolves.