A prediction of a dramatic fall for one U.S. automaker, continued dominance for hybrids, new hope for electric vehicles and the revelation of “buckets of money” available for new vehicle purchases highlighted a 2026 third quarter assessment from Cox Automotive on Thursday.

While General Motors Co. is expected to top the new vehicle sales standings for both the third quarter and full year, strong momentum from Asian automakers threaten to not only knock GM from its perch but replace Ford Motor Co. as number three behind Toyota Motor Co. , according to Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough.

Indeed Asian automakers are expected to account for more than half of U.S. new vehicle sales for a second straight quarter, approaching record-high market share levels while brands from Detroit 3 are forecast to fall to just over 36% market share, the lowest level on record, wrote Chesbrough.

He expects the market share shift to continue through the end of the year.

Powering the Asian march to the top is their wide portfolio of hybrid vehicles attracting consumers looking to offset high fuel prices.

In the case of Ford, Cox predicts it will be overtaken in Q3 by South Korean automaker Hyundai Motor Group due to both a comparitive paucity of hybrids, production issues and discontinuing once popular models, according to Cox executive analyst Erin Keating.

“Ford, you know, they lost the Escape. They had some F-series production challenges, and then they had a deliberate pullback from rental volume, which, of course, that’s what’s sort of helping Hyundai pull in, is because they really absorbed that rental volume,” said Keating during a media briefing. “GM has missed out on the hybrid story altogether, and so they’re really seeing some of their shares slide as well to the Toyotas, the Hondas, the Hyundais.”

Hybrids have become the happy medium for consumers not ready or willing to make the full jump to battery-electric vehicles, but who are looking to reduce fuel consumption.

U.S. market share for hybrids has increased to 16% from 13% in the past three months, accounting for about one in six new vehicle sales, according to Stephanie Valdez Streaty. director of industry insights at Cox.

While EV sales have been less than automakers had hoped, they do have a brighter growth outlook.

“I think the market’s starting to find that natural demand and manufacturers have adjusted production to match that demand,” said Streaty during the media briefing.

She added her optimism is also based on new, more affordable EV models from Toyota, Subaru and Rivian.

Overall, Cox economists believe the U.S. auto market has remained strong despite economic challenges that include higher prices for almost everything from gas to groceries.

Describing the market as “solid and resilient demand,” Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb announced the company raised its full year new vehicle sales forecast from 15.8 million vehicles to 16.8 million.

That more optimistic prediction is based on momentum from a surprisingly strong August which saw a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 16.8 million vehicles, more available credit and sustained consumer demand.

But while consumers are feeling pocketbook pressure from higher prices in general, where is all this money coming from to buy a new vehicle?

“People can feel really pessimistic, but if they’re still employed and their income is holding up, then as we’ve seen, their wallets can remain open,” offered Keating.

But a less obvious cash stash is sitting in savings and retirement accounts of aging Americans.

The average compound of liquid assets outside of 401(k) retirement accounts has been 19% a year, outpacing inflation, according to Robb.

“When you think about the number of predictions for recessions that have been made over the last five years, and they don’t happen, I think some of the models don’t account for all this just buckets of cash, liquid cash, on the sidelines, not even exposed to risk in the markets,” added Mark Strand, Cox deputy chief economist, during the media briefing. “We’ve never seen anything like this, and I think it adds to that wealth effect.”

Wealth doesn’t mean extravagant spending, however, just different spending, pointed out Keating, who observed consumers are simply adapting their purchases to their finances.

They want luxury? Sure, but they’re eschewing the traditional high-end brands in favor of what she termed, “affordable luxury.”

Beemer, Benz? Nope. The new posh, she said, just may be a Hyundai or Kia.