The employment-based immigration backlog in the United States now exceeds 1.2 million people, according to an analysis of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services data. An insufficient number of green cards relative to the demand for technically skilled professionals has created the backlog over many years. Wait times are much longer for individuals from India, China and the Philippines due to a per-country limit. The issue makes it challenging to attract and retain talent in the United States and causes hardship for many families.

According to a new National Foundation for American Policy report , “A high-skilled foreign national from India with a labor certification application or an employment-based immigrant petition filed in January 2026 or later has a potential wait time for a green card (permanent residence) of 179 years in the employment-based second preference (EB-2), 38 years in the employment-based third preference (EB-3) and 5 years in the employment-based first preference (EB-1). ”

NFAP notes that government data reveal how the backlog developed. “In FY 2016, USCIS approved 47,601 applications in the employment-based second preference (EB-2) for Indians, which translates into an estimated 98,594 people once dependents are included, according to NFAP calculations, but only 4,407 people from India were granted permanent residence in the EB-2 category in FY 2016.” That means in FY 2016, over 90,000 people (principals and dependents) were added to the backlog. Similar increases took place in 2017 and 2018. (NFAP obtained FOIA data for FY 2016-18 on permanent residence obtained by nationality and immigration category.)

Based on the current backlog and the August 2026 Visa Bulletin, NFAP estimates a waiting time of approximately 5 years for individuals from China with immigrant petitions filed in 2026 for the employment-based first preference, but fewer years for someone with a priority date closer to July 1, 2023. Foreign nationals from China in the EB-2, or employment-based second preference, category could wait up to 25 years if their labor certification or immigrant petition were filed in 2026. The waiting time is up to 7 years for individuals from China in the employment-based third preference with a labor certification or immigrant petition filed in 2026. (A priority date for employment-based green cards is when the federal government receives a labor certification application or, for individuals exempt from labor certification, an immigrant petition is filed.)

Based on the August 2026 Visa Bulletin, the EB-1 and EB-2 categories are current for the Philippines. Still, the backlog implies a waiting time of up to 6 years for individuals in the Philippines with a labor certification application or an immigrant petition filed in 2026 for the employment-based third preference. NFAP estimated the backlog for the Philippines in EB-3 at over 39,000 as of December 2025, a 91.7% increase from April 2020. (The number is estimated because NFAP needed to estimate the number of dependents from USCIS data.) The average yearly number of Filipinos who received permanent residence in the EB-3 category between FY 2016 and FY 2018 was only 6,451, according to NFAP. U.S. hospitals and other employers have a strong demand for healthcare workers from the Philippines.

Slow government processing by USCIS and the Labor Department, although it remains a problem, has not caused the multi-year waits for employment-based green cards. Before being sponsored for permanent residence, many foreign nationals first work in H-1B temporary status and must go through labor certification , a process that can take two to three years. Many employment-based immigrants first arrived in America as international students . Companies recruiting at U.S. universities find that international students account for approximately 75% to 80% of full-time graduate students in AI-related fields, such as computer and information sciences.

Under U.S. law, only 140,000 employment-based green cards are permitted annually, including the dependents (spouse and children) of the principal. There are five employment-based preferences: First Preference (EB-1, including outstanding researchers and professors, aliens of extraordinary ability); Second Preference (EB-2, workers with advanced degrees or exceptional ability); Third Preference (EB-3, professionals, skilled workers and other workers); Fourth Preference (EB-4, special workers, such as religious workers) and Fifth Preference (EB-5, employment creation or investor visas).

The Employment-Based Immigration Backlog Rose Significantly In The Past Five Years

“The employment-based immigration backlog in the first three preferences increased by 20.6% or 216,153, from 1,048,342 to 1,264,495, between April 2020 and December 2025,” according to the National Foundation for American Policy estimate. NFAP calculated the overall backlog by estimating the number of dependents, which the immigration agency did not include, based on the historical proportion of dependents.

According to the NFAP analysis, the backlog increased by 22.9%, or 156,612, in the employment-based second preference and by 30.1%, or 78,394, in the employment-based third preference between April 2020 and December 2025. The backlog fell by 16.6% or 16,832 in the employment-based first preference.

The analysis noted that the employment-based immigration backlog rose substantially even though more than 280,000 additional green cards were added to the category than expected in FY 2020 through FY 2024. The law required the green cards to be added to the employment-based immigration categories because of shortfalls in the previous fiscal year’s family-based preferences. The shortfalls grew due to Covid-19 visa restrictions and processing issues.

The backlog will continue to grow without Congressional action. In 2022, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) blocked a measure to exempt individuals with a Ph.D. in science and technology fields and those with master’s degrees in critical industries from employment-based green card numerical limits and backlogs. The provision, which would have significantly addressed the decades-long waits for Indians, passed the House of Representatives before Grassley blocked it from being included in the 2022 Chips and Science Act during the conference committee.

The long waits for many employment-based immigrants are due to the per-country limit. The Immigration and Nationality Act states, “[T]he total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state . . . may not exceed 7 percent . . . of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.”

People from countries with large populations wait several years longer than people from smaller-population countries because of the per-country limit. Under the law, China and India, which have the world’s largest populations, are allotted the same number of green cards as Iceland, with a population of 402,000.

“The number of Indians waiting in the backlog in the employment-based second preference increased by 17.6% or an estimated 109,5050 between April 2020 and December 2025,” according to NFAP. “Indians waiting in the backlog in the employment-based third preference increased by 51.1% or an estimated 72,209 between April 2020 and December 2025.” Almost one million people from India were waiting in the employment-based immigration backlog as of December 2025. An estimated 731,566 are in the employment-based second preference and 213,414 in the employment-based third preference.

The number of employment-based immigrants from China in backlogs increased by 46.2% in EB-1, 14.7% in EB-2 and 25% in the employment-based third preference between April 2020 and December 2025, according to NFAP. As of December 2025, an estimated 32,801 people from China were in the EB-1 backlog, 71,345 were in the EB-2 backlog, and 23,711 were waiting in the EB-3 category.

Low annual limits and the per-country limit also cause significant backlogs and wait times in family immigration categories. A November 2023 State Dept. report finds that approximately 3.8 million people are on the family-sponsored preference waiting list. According to the State Department, as of August 2026, only applicants whose sponsors filed before July 2001 would be allowed to enter from Mexico as the married son or daughter of a U.S. citizen. Applicants needed to file before March 2008 to be eligible to enter from the Philippines as the sibling of a U.S. citizen.

The NFAP analysis notes Congress chose a 140,000 annual limit for employment-based immigrants before smartphones, widespread internet use, e-commerce, advanced artificial intelligence and many other developments. Without a change in the law, the employment-based immigration backlog will exceed 2 million people within 15 years. Many highly skilled individuals and their families will still be waiting for their green cards.