Andy Burnham stepped into Antalya this week as the sole G7 leader scheduled to address COP31, wasting no time in throwing his weight behind electrification. The UK Prime Minister endorsed the Turkish presidency’s ambitious target to elevate electricity's contribution to global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, while also unveiling a comprehensive clean electrification roadmap.

While President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Albanese have positioned electrification at the heart of the summit—earning the backing of the European Union, Brazil, and upcoming 2026 host Ethiopia—tensions remain visible. Reports noted that Albanese's Leaders Summit address omitted any reference to fossil fuels entirely, whereas Erdoğan arrived straight from announcing fresh oil discoveries.

Meanwhile, fossil fuels dominated other discussions at COP31. UN Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned delegates on Wednesday that fossil fuels must soon become obsolete. Brazil's COP30 delegation showcased its transition roadmap before a packed plenary, and Finland cemented its status as only the fourth nation globally with a binding phase-out plan.

Ultimately, driving electrification forward is a vital mechanism for executing the broader global departure from fossil fuels.

Two distinct races within one vital transition

Governments initially committed to moving away from fossil fuels at COP28 in Dubai. Although formal diplomatic negotiations have since slowed—with last year’s COP30 agreement omitting fossil fuels altogether—momentum has surged in other arenas. Back in April, 57 nations representing one-third of the global economy convened in Santa Marta, Colombia, for the inaugural summit dedicated explicitly to transitioning away from fossil fuels, with a sequel planned for next year.

The real economy has similarly refused to stall. Business leaders advocated strongly for a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap at COP30. Clean energy investments are projected to hit $2.2 trillion this year, nearly doubling the $1.2 trillion flowing into oil, gas, and coal. Furthermore, efficiency measures and clean energy saved the five largest fuel-importing regions approximately $260 billion in fossil fuel imports last year, while one in every four new cars purchased globally in 2025 was electric, displacing roughly 1.7 million barrels of oil daily.

The ongoing Hormuz crisis has further accelerated this trajectory, driving fully electric vehicles to record market shares across major automotive hubs. Nations like India, Chile, Australia, and New Zealand have seen dramatic accelerations since the strait's closure.

As energy think tank Ember observes, the modern energy transition actually consists of two parallel races. The first is the renewables race, focusing on how electricity is generated. The second is the electrification race, transforming how energy is consumed across transportation, homes, and industry. Unfortunately, the latter receives far less policy attention.

Transport, buildings, and industrial sectors account for roughly 60% of global energy supply usage and over 60% of energy-related emissions—representing the primary domain of fossil fuel consumption. Every electric vehicle, heat pump, or electrified industrial process curtails fossil fuel demand throughout its operational lifecycle.

While the world maintains clear targets for the first race—such as tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and phasing out fossil fuels—it has established zero targets for the second, where electricity still accounts for less than a quarter of final energy. National climate strategies frequently emphasize renewables while overlooking end-use electrification. However, clean power cannot displace oil and gas inside a combustion-engine vehicle or a conventional boiler, making the transition to EVs and heat pumps indispensable.

Clean energy is the final destination, not the starting gate

A debate surfaced in Antalya over whether governments should endorse general electrification or strictly clean electrification. The definitive objective is clear: an electrified economy powered entirely by clean energy. The core question lies in the transition pathway.

Underlying concerns are certainly valid. Certain fossil fuel stakeholders cite rising electricity demands—with data centers being the latest example—to advocate for new gas plants and LNG facilities. Globally, data centers will account for under a tenth of electricity demand growth through 2030, and these power loads should be supplied by contracting new clean generation and grid infrastructure rather than burning more gas.

However, critics often misunderstand the dynamic. Rising electricity consumption is not synonymous with electrification. Electrification means substituting fossil-fueled systems with electrical alternatives. While a new data center introduces fresh demand, an electric vehicle or heat pump displaces oil or gas that would otherwise be combusted.

“But the argument is predicated on a misunderstanding. Rising electricity use is not the same as electrification.” Maria Mendiluce

Electric technologies possess superior efficiency. An electric vehicle consumes roughly one-third of the energy required by a petrol vehicle over an equivalent distance, and heat pumps deliver three to five thermal units for every unit of electricity consumed. Consequently, even on existing grids that still rely partially on fossil fuels, transitioning reduces burned fossil fuels from day one. As grids incorporate more clean energy, those savings compound annually.

Imposing clean power as an absolute prerequisite would force the two races to run sequentially—requiring fully built renewables and grids prior to connecting new demand—rather than concurrently. Every gas boiler and petrol car sold during such a waiting period locks in decades of fossil fuel dependence.

Such a precondition would disproportionately penalize developing economies, where access, infrastructure, and growth must advance alongside decarbonization. Because nations initiate their transitions from different baselines, the core metrics are direction and velocity: increasingly electrified economies driven by progressively cleaner electricity. Clean power is already winning, having more than covered all new electricity demand in 2025 while global fossil generation stalled for the first time since the 2020 pandemic year and only the fifth time this century.

What Antalya must deliver

Renewables have factored into COP agreements since 2022 and secured a global target in Dubai, yet electrification has never possessed an independent target in a COP text. COP31 in Antalya can rectify this by incorporating a cover decision that:

  • Integrates electrification with existing Dubai commitments: tripling renewable capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and transitioning away from fossil fuels.
  • Acknowledges the precise function of electrification: paired with grids and storage, it translates clean power and efficiency gains into economy-wide emissions reductions while bolstering energy security and affordability.
  • Encourages all nations to help drive electricity’s share of final energy to 35% by 2035 through nationally determined contributions tailored to domestic circumstances.
  • Provides developing countries with robust international cooperation, financial assistance, technological transfer, and capacity-building.

The private sector stands prepared, with over 180 companies boasting combined revenues exceeding $1.69 trillion having signed the Seizing the Electric Advantage statement. The technical solutions are well documented: faster permitting processes, streamlined grid connections, electricity markets that appropriately reward clean and flexible supply and demand, and the elimination of heavy tax burdens on electricity relative to the fossil fuels it replaces.

Every year of procrastination translates to mounting emissions, eroded competitiveness, heightened energy vulnerability, and inflated utility bills during a period when oil price shocks impact every national economy.

Antalya must place electrification at the epicenter of its agenda to reaffirm global resolve in phasing out fossil fuels, allowing the international community to successfully deliver on both fronts.