Tropical Storm Fay is churning in the Atlantic Ocean. It currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and is slowly moving westward. At one point, there were signs that it could become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, but the National Hurricane Center is now suggesting that is unlikely. The 2026 season now holds the record for the latest date without a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, surpassing September 11. Could we make it to October without a hurricane in the basin?

Why Tropical Storm Fay Is Not Likely To Become A Hurricane

“Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well north-northwest of the mid-level center,” according to an early morning report by NHC forecasters. “Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the next few days,” It went on to say.

Why The Lack Of Hurricanes In The Atlantic So Far

As many of us have explained for months, El Niño is the primary culprit for suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this season. It has been understood for decades that a moderate-to-strong El Niño disrupts the ocean-atmosphere system in ways that limits hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and boosts it in the Pacific basin. Given the hurricane activity that has hampered Hawaii this season, things are playing out as expected.

The strengthening El Niño is projected to be one of the strongest ones on record, if not the strongest. “El Niño generally lessens hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean via increased vertical wind shear across the region, making it harder for thunderstorms to organize into hurricanes,” wrote the NOAA website . “On the other hand, El Niño often increases hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins, as the warmer waters provide more energy, and atmospheric conditions become more favorable for storms to form,” The website explained. For these reasons, NOAA and other seasonal predictions expected below-normal activity in the Atlantic.

Will A Hurricane Form Before October In The Atlantic Ocean?

As I review some of the global forecast models, the answer to that question could be no. “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days,” noted the National Hurricane Center in its Monday morning tropical weather outlook.

The lack of activity in the Atlantic basin was expected. Though, apparently some climate naysayers are trying to spin the narrative. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather’s post on the social media platform X sums up that false narrative perfectly below. Oddly, those same people have not pointed to the active Pacific season. As I write this, 16 named storms have formed, and a couple of more are likely on the horizon.