Climate change having a disproportionate impact on food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, according to a new analysis.

The 2025 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change highlights the growing relationship between climate change and food insecurity, and how it is impacting these countries more than in other parts of the world.

According to the study, an additional 2.7 million people on the 26 SIDS considered were estimated to have experienced moderate or severe food insecurity due to a higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts.

It argues oeople with low levels of income have a significantly higher risk of suffering from food

insecurity relative to those with medium-incomes and countries, which are relatively more dependent on food imports are at a higher risk of food insecurity

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are among the most exposed to climate impacts, whether these be sea level rise, droughts, floods, or extreme events, yet contribute less than 1% to global emissions.

Report co-author and CMCC researcher, Dr. Shouro Dasgupta, said the small islands are amongst the most vulnerable nations to climate change, despite contributing a small share of global emissions, in an interview.

Dr. Dasgupta added these states are some of the most vulnerable countries and territories on the planet and are facing a range of climate-related issues, including increasing heat-related mortality and increases in infectious diseases.

He said the availability of climate finance is inadequate, especially for small developing countries to be put on a “green growth pathway”.

He told me they are also heavily dependent on food imports, while the producing nations they import from are being impacted by various climate and geopolitical factors, leading to increased prices and strained supply chains.

Dr. Dasgupta added regional food storage facilities are crucial to ensure food security, but many such facilities have been dismantled in recent decades.

He said nearly 5% of population across the 30 countries in the SIDS group have become food insecure due to increases in the frequency of heatwaves and droughts.

According to the FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), “a third of the respondents in these countries reported they could not afford healthy and nutritious food,” the environmental economist told me.

“Being unable to eat healthy, nutritious food leads to a range of malnutrition-related diseases, most visibly in children," said Dr. Dasgupta.

The consequences are not only medical. A malnourished workforce is less productive, and that decline in productivity carries through to the broader economy..

“The effects of a climate change-induced increase in food insecurity is multifaceted and long-lasting, unfortunately.”

Dr. Samuel Sinclair, the co-founder and director of the sustainability consultancy Biodiversify said the report’s findings should be viewed as an early warning of a pressure building across food systems worldwide, in a statement.

Dr. Sinclair added food insecurity is what happens when climate shocks hit degraded ecosystems that have lost the capacity to absorb them.

He said forests regulate rainfall, soils retain water, and biodiverse landscapes dampen the volatility that turns a drought or heatwave into a food crisis.

And Dr. Sinclair added climate change is increasing the frequency of shocks, but it is the state of nature that decides how hard they land, which is why climate shocks are increasingly becoming supply shocks.

“These islands are the first to feel this at scale, but it is the same risk already surfacing in global commodities like cocoa and coffee,” he said.

“The most resilient food systems of the future will be built by the governments and businesses that invest in nature as critical infrastructure, building supply chains that are more competitive and better equipped for long-term growth."