As COP31 gets underway in Antalya, it opens against the backdrop of a shifting global electorate. Over the past fortnight, Brazilians re-elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, maintaining the leadership of last year's COP host nation. Meanwhile, Serbian voters turned out in unprecedented numbers to end 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vučić’s party, and American voters handed both chambers of Congress to the Democrats in midterms heavily influenced by mounting electricity bills.

Though spanning three vastly different nations, the collective message is unmistakable: citizens are exhausted by delays and expect their leaders to address escalating living costs and national security. At the center of both challenges lies energy.

The True Cost of Fossil Fuel Dependence

This year has forced the global economy to confront the steep price of relying on fossil fuels. Conflict involving Iran and the practical shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz sparked what the International Energy Agency termed the worst oil supply shock in history, driving crude above $115 per barrel in March. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that Europe alone absorbed an extra €127 billion in imported fossil energy costs in a short span, receiving not a single extra molecule of energy in return. Such shocks remain inevitable as long as economies rely on vulnerable shipping chokepoints.

The solution is no longer a matter of abstract theory. Consumers see it in heat pumps and electric vehicles that bypass fuel spikes, while policymakers recognize it in domestic power generation that cannot be blockaded. Every barrel or cubic meter replaced by localized electricity strips away geopolitical leverage and price volatility. Electrification functions simultaneously as climate strategy, security policy, and cost-of-living relief, anchoring the agenda at this year's UN climate summit.

By proposing a target to raise electricity's portion of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035—backed by the Turkish presidency and steered by Australia—Antalya offers something rare for a COP: a concrete benchmark that businesses can model, measure, and fund. It translates the abstract concept of transitioning away from fossil fuels into tangible economic terms.

Antalya's Potential to Cure Fossil Reliance

By making electrification its core focus, Türkiye has thrust the COP process directly into mainstream economic policy. When the Hormuz disruption crippled global energy flows, the G7 deployed traditional countermeasures like new transit routes and expanded stockpiles—essentially temporary patches on an inherently broken system. Antalya provides a genuine cure. For an international summit frequently critiqued for losing its relevance, this represents a vital opportunity to anchor climate action firmly within the global economy.

Criticism of the UN climate process is often justified. The summit moves slowly and remains vulnerable to foot-dragging by reluctant member states. Pledges have consistently outpaced execution, while real-world consequences accumulate in lost lives and billions of dollars in damages.

Yet a broader historical view reveals substantial progress. Three decades ago, when UN climate talks began, clean energy was merely a fringe sector, and global emissions tracked toward 3.6°C of warming. Today's existing policies project a trajectory of roughly 2.8°C—still perilous, but fundamentally altered. The Paris Agreement established the goal, Glasgow incorporated coal phase-outs into official text, and Dubai committed the world to moving away from fossil fuels. Now, Antalya defines the route toward electrification. While each individual step appeared modest, together they have redirected trillions of dollars in capital and initiated a global economic rewiring.

Overcoming Resistance to Climate Progress

This momentum has advanced in the face of fierce resistance. For decades, legacy energy incumbents poured vast resources into disputing climate science and stalling policy implementation. Following the Paris Agreement alone, the five largest publicly traded oil majors spent over $1 billion lobbying against the treaty's core objectives. This resistance mirrors historical commercial failures, such as legacy phone manufacturers who ignored smartphones and lost their market dominance. That the COP process thrives despite this ongoing opposition is remarkable.

This resilience highlights the indispensable value of multilateralism. The COP summit remains the unique forum where small island nations share equal footing with the world's largest carbon emitters, establishing a unified trajectory capable of outliving individual political cycles. After years of global volatility, that institutional durability is well worth preserving.

Nevertheless, establishing a shared direction is only half the battle; executing it is far more difficult. The Electrification Competitiveness Index compiled by the We Mean Business Coalition indicates that 14 out of 16 analyzed economies score better on enabling frameworks than on actual deployment. Delivery continues to stall due to inconsistent incentives, fragmented policymaking, electricity pricing structures that favor fossil fuels, sluggish permitting, and deficient grid infrastructure. For instance, securing a grid connection can take up to a decade in the U.K., while the U.S. currently has over two terawatts of projects stalled in connection queues.

What Antalya Must Deliver

To succeed, Antalya must achieve three critical objectives. First, it must endorse the 35% by 2035 target through an official presidential pledge and summit-level decision, reinforcing the commitments made in Dubai to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, and transition away from fossil fuels. Second, it must commit to foundational enablers: building grids ahead of demand, clearing interconnection backlogs, and eliminating tax structures that penalize electricity relative to fossil fuels. Third, it must encourage governments to detail sector-by-sector electrification strategies within their national climate plans to give investors market certainty.

In an increasingly volatile world, the foundational premise of multilateralism—that nations are safer and more prosperous when confronting shared threats collectively—resembles basic common sense rather than idealism. Yet restoring trust in international cooperation requires more than grand rhetoric. If Antalya can deliver lower energy bills, secure supplies, reduced fossil reliance, cleaner air, and sustainable jobs through a unified electrification pact, it just might earn that trust back.