Imagine a world in which a woman with a rare, life-threatening disease visits a hospital and the doctors use an AI tool to identify a cure found in nature. Based on the latest collisions of AI and biochemistry, this is close to becoming reality.

Last month, s cientists at Stanford University and the Arc Institute reached a significant milestone in developing AI for health benefits. They taught AI to recognise patterns of DNA structure in plants, animals and microbes, to produce new viruses capable of infecting and eliminating certain types of bacteria. It opens up new possibilities for combatting bacterial resistance, but also new questions about the use of nature’s data.

Such developments, and the health, economic and financial benefits they bring, are ultimately dependent on biodiversity and access to healthy ecosystems. So protecting supply chains relying on these ecosystems is key to continued supply of innovative health solutions. However, growing commercial use of Digital Sequence Information (DSI) is not yet at the front of mind for institutional investors. And the UN’s first ever review of global progress towards the multilaterally agreed goal to halt and reverse biodiversity by 2030 showed private finance is lagging behind and the Cali Fund - the first-ever fund to channel commercial benefits from DSI to biodiversity conservation - is slowly getting off the ground.

Nature’s pharmacy in the digital age

Natural ecosystems are extraordinarily diverse biochemical factories, housing genetic information essential for the development of drugs, vaccines and personal care products. The pharmaceutical and biotech industries rely heavily on healthy ecosystems and access to DSI derived from nature: around 80% of medicines trace their origins to natural compounds. Biodiversity is pharma’s largest, oldest and most under-priced supplier.

In 1971, chemists isolated a compound from the bark of the Pacific yew tree that would become Taxol - one of the most commercially successful plant-derived cancer drugs ever developed. Fast forward to 1992, when a biochemist discovered a compound in Gila Monster venom that would become part of Ozempic - a drug used by millions to treat GLP-1 diabetes. In 2024, sales of this drug skyrocketed the value of Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk past Denmark’s entire GDP .

Combining artificial intelligence with drug development is big business. The global AI-in-drug-discovery market was valued at roughly $2.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $13.8 billion by 2033 - a compound annual growth rate of nearly 25%. Nature’s digital library is being downloaded faster than ever, but at the same time, the users are burning the books by failing to understand and react to the growing nature loss risks their businesses face.

Experts estimate the sector loses one promising medical compound to extinction every two years . Unlike a factory or a farm, this supplier cannot be re-sourced because once it’s gone, it’s gone. The source materials for drug discovery are being exploited because of short-term economics and a failure of our financial system to properly value natural resources.

The UN has warned that companies are failing to act on biodiversity loss . The methods used, especially for measuring physical and nature-related risks, are still in their infancy with risks very likely being underestimated. Our work at CISL on the A-Track project is investigating how businesses and financial institutions can better include nature in their decisions and scale positive action.

The billion dollar opportunity to halt biodiversity loss and build resilience

Scientists estimate that 99% of compounds remain unexplored, highlighting the vast and largely untapped potential. Researchers recently found tropical forests hold up to $1.2 trillion (estimates range from $382 billion - $1.2 billion) in undiscovered drug value from flowering plants alone. That’s nearly five times the global spend on vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. This commercial figure is a fraction of the wider social health benefits, such as improved quality of life, increased life expectancy, lower healthcare costs etc, held within tropical forests, estimated at $7 trillion.

Ongoing forest loss shrinks the pipeline of potential new drug discoveries. Deforestation since 2001 has already put $86 billion in commercial pharmaceutical value at risk.

Delaying action to halt deforestation only compounds the loss and shrinks the potential for breakthrough medical discoveries and commercial benefits. Investment to halt nature loss builds resilience into supply chains, while delivering enormous health benefits to patients. Acting now to halt deforestation by 2030 could safeguard roughly ten times the pharmaceutical value we stand to lose under current deforestation trends.

The evidence is clear - nature provides the essential underpinning for value across the economy and health. The pharmaceutical sector is one of the most strongly tied to natural assets. Until companies start to build biodiversity and the Indigenous Communities that steward it into their financial decision making, a healthy pipeline of breakthrough drugs is at risk.

Asset managers have started to engage pharmaceutical companies on these risks. BNP Paribas challenged pharmaceutical companies on their use of horseshoe crab blood, which is used across the industry to test drugs and vaccines. Triodos Bank is actively encouraging pharma companies to align with global biodiversity initiatives, for example by contributing to The Cali Fund - a new multilateral fund that channels private finance to Indigenous Peoples and local communities who steward the majority of the world’s biodiversity.

CBD COP17: Shifting natural assets from high risk to long-term resilience

Despite the fact we are off track on biodiversity targets, the first global progress review showed political will to protect nature is unprecedented and 79% of countries are looking to find ways to incentivise companies benefiting from nature’s genetic data to pay for it.

Governments are recognising that investment into natural assets stabilises macroeconomic systems. The UK Government’s £400 million investment into the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) reflects a move towards prioritising nature restoration for economic stability. This structural shift allows economies to grow while protecting their own asset base.

With one month to go until CBD COP17, will finance flows reflect these priorities? The use of nature’s DNA and traditional knowledge for drug discovery has been central to R&D strategies for hundreds of years. While questions remain on how companies should be regulated on DSI use, how much they should contribute to the Cali Fund, and how governments incentivise companies to invest, one point is plain as day - it is time to stop treating nature as charity.

If we are to save the world’s biodiversity - pharma’s largest, oldest and most under-priced supplier - businesses need to lean in and voluntarily address the immediate material risks threatening their bottom line. At the same time, governments need to take a harder line on regulations to make globally agreed mechanisms thrive. Both must work in tandem.

We’re standing on the edge of a precipice and the only way out is for everyone to play their part. I can’t think of a bigger incentive than protecting the pipeline of medicines and vaccines that will save billions of lives, while delivering shareholder returns and progressing global scientific leadership.