Almost a week ago, I wrote an article explaining why the Atlantic hurricane basin was so quiet as we entered the month of August. Those reasons included a strengthening El Nino, the presence of Saharan dust, and timing to reach peak activity. There is evidence the basin is awakening from its slumber.

Three Potential Areas Of Activity Are Being Watched

At the time of writing, the National Hurricane Center is watching three potential areas for development in the Atlantic basin. A tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic has an 80% chance of further development within the next seven days and is expected to become a tropical depression. It is located about 800 miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. If that location sounds familiar, then you probably watched the FIFA World Cup last month. That little set of islands is a key geographic feature at this time of a typical hurricane season as systems emerge to the west of the African continent.

NHC forecasters give a system in the Central Subtropical Atlantic part of the basin a 50% chance of development in the coming week. It is located about 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. "Some development of this system is possible through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic," wrote NHC. However, the system is pretty far north and will encounter colder waters by Thursday.

Another tropical wave is located just off the west African coast and is not well organized at this time, but there are fairly conducive conditions ahead of it. NHC has placed formation chances at 20% over the next seven days.

In each of those cases, I mentioned the term “tropical wave.” What is that? NOAA defined it as,“An inverted trough (an elongated area of relatively low pressure) or cyclonic curvature maximum moving east to west across the tropics." You will sometimes see them referred to as easterly waves. A tropical depression is reached if a cyclone reaches maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph or less. As the graphic below explains, tropical storm or hurricane status is reached when certain sustained wind thresholds are breached.

Is this awakening late? Honestly, I would say not really. NOAA is still calling for below-normal activity in the basin, but there have been two named storms this season, Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, respectively. NOAA projected a total of 7-13 named storms and 2-6 hurricanes. Less than three of them are expected to become major hurricanes.

Climatologically-speaking, the third named storm of the season typically has formed around August 3rd. The fourth named storm usually comes along around August 15th. If Cristobal and Dolly form in the coming days, it is pretty much in the expected period for August. The first hurricane of the year usually forms around August 11th. At this time, none of these storms is expected to reach the U.S. mainland or hurricane status, but we will certainly keep a closer eye on the basin as we approach the peak of the season.