As we approach the second week of October, it is well-documented that no hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin this year. There have actually been 8 named storms, but none have reached sustained winds of 74 miles per hour. Our best forecast models are showing the possibility of a tropical system developing in the Gulf this week. Could this storm become Hanna and affect Gulf Coast states?

“A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf….,” warned the National Hurricane Center early Monday morning. “Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially,” NHC forecasters continued. The system has about a 50% chance of formation in the coming seven days, but I expect that number to increase.

Some of our most reliable weather models including the European-AI, ICON, and GFS have the system developing, but none of them have the system reaching hurricane status right now. A “hurricane-less” Atlantic season could still be in play for 2026 thanks to the strong El Nino emerging. If the system does develop, the emerging consensus seems to take the storm somewhere between New Orleans and the panhandle of Florida. Until the storm actually starts to develop, however, all interests from Texas to Florida should start to watch the forecasts closely.

From a climatological standpoint, this is a pretty typical origin spot for early October. In an analysis of data from 1851 to 2025, NOAA points out expected points of tropical or subtropical cyclone origination during the first ten days of October. A cluster of activity is apparent in the southern Gulf region where the current system is located.

Over the next few days, I will continue to monitor the system. There is still some uncertainty in its evolution. “Considering that the low pressure has not developed yet, and could be several days away from developing, now is not the time to focus on specifics,” cautioned forecasters at the National Weather Service in New Orleans. Even if it does not become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Hanna, it could bring moisture to Gulf states and the Southeast. Much of this region has already experienced significant rainfall due to a stalled frontal system in recent days.