It is virtually certain that a developing system in the Gulf will become the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of further development of Invest 92L to 100% as of Tuesday afternoon. Here are three things that you need to know right now.

Will It Become A Hurricane?

The system is becoming better organized, and advisories are now being issued. After the low pressure area drifts toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Gulf Coast of the United States is the likely destination. “The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week,” wrote NHC forecasters. “It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system,” They continued.

I am pretty comfortable predicting that we will soon see a Tropical Depression become Tropical Storm Isaias within the next couple of days. Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read is one of the experts watching the storm. “While healthy uncertainty on the details, the hurricane models used for intensity and Google Deep Mind bring what will be Isaias to hurricane strength on approach to the northern Gulf coast later this week,” Read wrote on his Facebook page Tuesday afternoon. Google’s experimental AI-based model has performed well in recent years. It is important to note that Read included "healthy uncertainty" in his post because some social media sources may not offer such caveats. Please be discerning in your information sources as this storm event plays out.

How Do You Pronounce Isaias?

We have seen this name before. It is important to remember that hurricane name lists repeat every six years unless the storm name is retired. Hurricane Isaias was one of several named storms during the historic 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It affected the Caribbean region and the U.S. East Coast. The correct way to pronounce Isaias is “ ee-sah-ee-ahs .”

Hurricane Hunters from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force will be sampling the storm environment within the coming day or so. Once we have such information, it will help the forecast models. Early spaghetti model plots bring the storm into the Gulf Coast region between Friday and Sunday morning. However, there is still uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at this time. Keep that in mind when you start seeing “conclusive” statements about either of them on your social media platforms.

While sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough to support intensification, the wind shear environment will not be “textbook” for ideal development. There are other meteorological factors, including a stalled front, to watch for as well in the coming days.

“The disturbance lifting northeastward from the Gulf will encounter abundant moisture and sufficient instability, leading to enhanced rainfall rates along the frontal boundary,” warned NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. Irrespective of what the storm becomes, the Southeast and Gulf Coast will be quite wet and breezy this weekend. I expect flooding, storm surge, and tornado risks as the system makes landfall. Extreme flooding and winds could be a problem well inland too and is certain to impact college football games in the Southeast this Saturday.