For years, Europe’s short-haul flights made traveling across the continent easy, accessible and almost seamless: a weekend in Milan, a quick day trip to Amsterdam, or a summer fiesta in Barcelona.

But as Europe’s jet fuel reserves dwindle to a few-week supply and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, the most valuable luxury in 2026 may not be a five-star suite, but a guaranteed arrival.

With travel costs rising and European airlines canceling flights due to fuel optimization , international travelers are hesitant to book, while Europeans are staying closer to home.

But the situation also gives Europe a new sense of urgency to invest in rail development (some argue for at least €100 billion) and make trains a serious cross-border alternative to flights.

Europeans Are Retreating Into Their Own Countries

According to Eurostat , European Union residents have already spent 71% of their trips within their own country of residence, a pattern that is unlikely to change in 2026.

Ignacio Merino, CEO of Freetour.com , says the company’s internal booking and search data show that the strongest trend for 2026 is intracountry travel, especially in Western and Southern Europe.

"People are staying within the same country more often and focusing on shorter, local trips rather than combining multiple destinations," Merino said in an email interview.

Polarsteps , the travel app, is seeing a similar regional pattern. According to its travel data, for example, British travelers are looking more to Europe this summer, with France, Italy, Germany and Spain accounting for 62% of planned trips in the app.

Ben Julius, founder of Tourist Italy , said his company has seen a 23% relative increase in demand from UK clients booking tour packages in Italy, alongside a 15% relative decrease in demand from long-haul clients.

Long-Haul Travelers Are Hesitating To Travel To Europe

While the question for Europeans is whether to stay closer to home, for international travelers, the question may be whether to go at all.

U.S. Travel Association’s March Travel Price Index rose 5.8% year over year, with energy and transportation costs driving much of the increase. Airline fares were up 14.9% from a year earlier. This pressure is already showing up in Americans' summer travel plans.

According to the U.S. News new summer travel survey , 65% said they have already changed or canceled summer plans because of rising prices. They are cutting back on the total budget (27.1%), on the number of trips (25.1%), or changing the destination (22.1%).

The U.S. Department of State issued a worldwide security alert on Sunday, March 22 , urging Americans traveling abroad to use increased caution.

According to new survey data from Squaremouth , a travel insurance marketplace, most Americans (56%) are worried about cancellations or interruptions during their summer trip, while interest in "cancel for any reason" coverage has risen 27% since early March.

Richard Campbell, founder of 10Adventures , says North American and Australian travelers are still asking about Europe, but some are delaying decisions.

"Americans and Canadians are getting details on availability and pricing for their trip, but asking if they can hold off on booking due to the current uncertainty around jet fuel," he said in an email interview.

"Some are worried that their flight to Europe will be canceled, while others are surprised by the increased price of the flights," he added.

For Australian travelers, the main concern is how to get there if the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist.

Campbell said Australians are "very uncertain about booking right now," especially when flights connect through the Gulf.

Is Rail Moving From Alternative To Backup?

Travelers are not necessarily giving up on European travel. Many are trying to make the trip less dependent on short-haul flights and are looking at trains, ferries and other alternatives.

“We are seeing double-digit growth in rail and bus bookings across Europe. This shift suggests that travellers are not giving up on their holidays. but adjusting their routes, modes and timing to make travel work for them,” said Veronica Diquattro, president B2C and supply at Omio.com , a travel search and booking platform where you can compare and book trains, buses, flights and ferries in one place.

Cat Jones, founder and CEO of Byway , a U.K.-based flight-free travel company, also sees a “strong and growing demand for flight-free travel.”

Travelers are emailing the company to ask for flight-free holiday options after losing confidence in short-haul air travel. "At Byway, last-minute bookings are up 85% compared with the same period last year," said Jones.

Historically, 36% of Byway customers said they would have flown if they had not booked with the company, while 4% said they would have stayed home. In April 2026, the share who would have flown fell to 31%, while the share who would have stayed home rose to 10%.

"I’ve also noticed a renewed interest in EV road trips, supported by Europe's rapidly improving charging infrastructure. This summer is likely to see more people mixing transport modes rather than defaulting to flying," said Sara van Geloven, travel expert at Polarsteps , in an email interview.

Tomas Turek, co-founder and CEO of Daytrip , a travel platform offering pre-booked private transfers and sightseeing stops between cities, said in an email interview that the shift may not always show up immediately in booking data because travelers often wait until disruption becomes unavoidable.

"We are not seeing a meaningful shift we can confidently quantify at this stage," Turek said. "In situations like this, many travelers do not immediately start replacing short-haul flights with other transport. More often, they reassess the trip altogether, especially if there is uncertainty around getting in or out of Europe."

He said past disruptions, including strikes and volcanic eruptions, suggest demand for alternatives can come late and all at once. "That is why travelers benefit from having a flexible backup plan in place ahead of time," he said.

Steven Vigor, CEO of Revigorate , a Europe-focused bespoke luxury travel concierge, said he is not seeing a significant shift away from flights overall, but he is seeing more interest in rail, where it adds value to the trip.

"Among our higher-end clients, trains are increasingly being used as part of the experience, particularly on well-known scenic routes in Switzerland, France and Italy," he said in an email interview.

Although he also noted that “unlike trains, buses don’t offer the same experiential value, so travelers are not yet willing to make the trade-off from flights to bus travel.”

Europe’s Rail Network Is Not Ready Yet

Europe cannot ask travelers to consider rail as a serious substitute for short-haul flights unless the network is fast, reliable, and easy to book across borders.

But it is not there yet. The plane-versus-train debate is not new, but the time gap between the two remains significant. According to the European Commission’s latest fact sheet , the rail journey from Madrid to Paris currently takes about 10 hours, while the flight time between these cities is only 2 hours.

UNIFE, the European Rail Supply Industry Association, has argued that the current energy shock shows why Europe needs to invest more heavily in rail.

In its latest official statement , the group is calling for the Connecting Europe Facility, the EU’s transport infrastructure funding program, to increase the allocated funding from €51.5 billion to at least €100 billion in the next EU budget cycle.

UNIFE says additional funding would support cross-border rail projects, military mobility, planning for a future EU high-speed rail network and technologies that improve the existing system, including the European Rail Traffic Management System and digital automatic coupling.