It has been just shy of a month since the United States (U.S.)-Israel-Iran war, igniting one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s. Is $200 a barrel a real possibility?

On March 9, a barrel of Brent Crude oil idled near the $120 mark. It had closed on February 27, the day before the war, at around $70. On March 25, it finished at $99.36 per barrel, which was the first time in 12 days that it closed under $100. A day later, it sits at $106.33 per barrel.

The Middle East, with its oil refineries and gas deposits, has felt the unprovoked wrath of Iran’s retaliatory missiles—many assigned coordinates with the intention of destabilizing the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, typically the gateway for some 20% of global seaborne oil trade, remains restricted, and the war seems far from over, despite President Donald Trump’s recent mention of a ceasefire.

For Africa’s energy market, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran’s control, “it makes the mountain we have to climb that much bigger,” says Kevin Mileham, Spokesperson on Electricity and Energy for the Democratic Alliance, one of South Africa’s leading political parties, to FORBES AFRICA, adding, “We are going to have to source from other limited supply reserves.”

Iran has denied Trump’s claims of negotiations in action and voice. During a state media address discussing a possible ceasefire, Reuters quoted Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, as saying, “Based on my information, contrary to Trump’s claim, no direct or indirect negotiations have taken place between the two countries so far.”

A lingering war poses serious risks for a heavily net-importing continent like Africa, which has already been afflicted by weakening currencies, rising inflation, and diminishing purchasing power as global investors retract.

The overriding concern is that it could get much worse for the region. While markets reacted kindly to Trump’s change of tune (a peace deal) amid U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealing the President had authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. ​Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it wouldn’t be overly presumptuous to assume costs could jump again.   

On March 11, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, told Washington: “Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized.”

It has been over two weeks since Zolfaqari’s threat, which has, as Brent prices go, de-escalated in severity; but the question remains: is $200 a barrel a real possibility?

“A sustained oil price of $200 per barrel is highly unlikely, but still possible,” says Otlotleng Mokgatle, Southern African Senior Analyst at Control Risks, a global risk consultancy firm, to FORBES AFRICA.

Jervin Naidoo, Political Analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, concurs, believing such a spike would “likely require a very large and sustained disruption to global supply”.

“Even at the height of the war between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices did not come close to that level, as markets adjusted through alternative supply and strategic reserves,” Naidoo adds, before acknowledging that the global fragility caused by closure to the Strait of Hormuz means reaching $200 per barrel “cannot be entirely dismissed under extreme geopolitical conditions”.

For many Africans, the next question would likely be: How will this affect us?

The answer is multifaceted, but almost always costly.

“African markets would react defensively,” Mokgatle predicts, “Oil‑importing economies such as South Africa would face acute inflation, sharply increased currency pressure, and even fuel‑access risks, while central banks would be forced into a far more hawkish stance despite the implied weak growth of the situation at hand.”

While nations brace for the worst, “A handful of oil exporters such as Angola would still benefit from windfall revenues, but even there the upside would be offset by significant fiscal distortions and generally higher social and political risk,” Mokgatle notes.

Africa finds itself in the crosshairs of a war happening outside of its jurisdiction. The unknowns are frightening. Conflict could stop tomorrow or continue for weeks or months.

With this in mind, governments will need to be alert for any exigency. Perhaps it’s in this moment that the continent can find resilience from within, pooling its resources through the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement.

However, either way, Africa’s lack of continent-wide refineries means the Middle East conflict will have a stronghold on the region, and for that, it should be a reminder that resource sovereignty is of the utmost importance.